1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 3, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5520 yuan / ton, which was 0.73% higher than that of the same period last month and 3.50% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market is in high-level consolidation, and the market in some regions is strong.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic alcohol market is stable and dynamic. Except for the slight adjustment of anhydrous market price, other markets have not changed much. The Northeast ethanol market remained stable around New Year’s day. Influenced by the snow and road closures, the external quotation of small northeast factories began to decline. The quotation remained stable when the inventory of large factories was not high, the downstream liquor procurement was close to the end and the chemical factories concentrated on the end of the month procurement. At the beginning of the week, the enterprises in East China adjusted their prices and then returned to normal. At present, the source of goods and ships did not arrive at the port, and the market price remained stable. Henan region The quotation of the enterprise is stable, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the market price remains in order; the quotation of the market in South China is relatively stable, and the operation rate of the enterprise’s devices is still not high. At present, the anhydrous price has been slightly reduced, because the downstream just needs to be insufficient. At present, the market price continues to be supported by the favorable supply in Guangdong, Guangxi, Anhui and other places.

Industry chain: corn: corn prices rose and fell slightly in some parts. In the near future, the grass-roots level in the main production area is loose in their attitude of reluctant to sell, and the corn is concentrated in quantity. The deep processing enterprises can flexibly adjust the purchase price according to the arrival quantity of the factory door. In the month of December, growers are faced with the demand for cash and repayment of loans before the festival. Factors such as the shortened period of grain sales before the festival, the purchase by raising the price of the state treasury, and the increase of the import expectation of substitutes are added. The grass-roots grain sales in the main production area are speeding up, and the increase of the quantity of corn promotes the price reduction and purchase of some processing enterprises. The spot price is still in the weak adjustment stage, but there are signs of bottoming out. We still believe that the probability of corn prices continuing to be weak in the short term is on the high side, and this prediction will not change for the time being. With the start of stock up demand before the Spring Festival, it is expected that corn prices will be stable and moderately bullish around the first and middle of January.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic ethyl acetate market fell in shock this week. Shandong Yankuang ethyl acetate plant maintains half load production, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. After the new year’s day, the purchase and purchase volume of raw ethyl acetate is gradually reduced, and there is no intention to prepare goods at the end of the year, which leads to the situation that the supply of domestic ethyl acetate Market is gradually larger than the demand, and suppliers and manufacturers are passively competing for shipment, which drives the market transaction down. However, the purchase volume of ethyl acetate in the downstream is still rational. After the supplier’s decline, the supplier is stable and intends to stabilize the price to attract the downstream purchase. However, the reduction of the downstream substantial demand becomes a force majeure. The ethyl acetate Market is passive and weak. Considering the inventory pressure in the later spring festival, it is expected that the ethyl acetate Market will still be weak next week.

3、 Future forecast

The ethanol analyst of the business association predicted that the short-term ethanol market is expected to be weak. At present, the inventory of large factories in Northeast China is not high, but the inventory of small factories is high due to the restrictions of transportation. The shipping mentality is positive, and the market price is weak. With the end of liquor purchasing and the purchase at the end of the month and the beginning of the month of chemical industry concentration, the demand in January is obviously reduced. The normal production of large factories’ devices and the arrival of the Spring Festival are expected The number of vehicles coming will continue to decrease. Under the influence of snowfall, it is difficult to find a higher price in logistics. It is expected that the price of Northeast market will be weak in the short term. In East China, a large number of ships will arrive at the port at the beginning of the month, and some cassava production enterprises will start production in January with raw materials arriving at the port. The supply will increase. The downstream chemical terminal heard that the holiday will start around January 10, which is affected by the increase of demand and supply , prices will be weak.