1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, caprolactam started to rise after a big fall, which has continued to rise 5.96%. On January 6, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11100 yuan / ton, and on January 10, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11266 yuan / ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.50%. So far, the caprolactam commodity index on January 12 is 56.67, flat with yesterday, 43.33% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 5.96% higher than the lowest point of 53.48 on December 5, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: caprolactam rose slightly this week. As of January 10, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 11000 yuan / ton, cash was delivered, and the manufacturer’s capacity was 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11700 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11150 yuan / ton. The 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11150 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11600 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device.

Industrial chain: the market of cyclohexanone is stable this week, and the main price in Shandong is 7300-7450 yuan / ton (ex factory in spot exchange), which is stable compared with last week. The situation in the Middle East was suddenly tense, crude oil rose, pure benzene market rose, and cyclohexanone cost pressure increased. Heavy snow in the North during the week affected the logistics and transportation, and the demand for solvents was limited. Affected by the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, oil prices soared, driving the price of pure benzene up in the external market and the domestic market. However, in the later period, the oil price plummeted and the support surface weakened. In addition, the downstream trading has been light and the profit is insufficient, so the market fell back.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

According to caprolactam analysts of the business club, in the near future, with the support of raw material price and the insufficient supply of products affected by the weather in the north, the manufacturer intends to hold up the price, the price of caprolactam starts to rise, and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that caprolactam will keep rising in the later period, and it is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price.