1、 Price trend

The ex factory price of glycol fell slightly this week, according to the data of business agency. On January 10, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 5283 yuan / ton, down 3.06% from last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 5440 yuan / ton, and by Friday, the price was 5235 yuan / ton, down 205 yuan / ton, down 3.77%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of January 16, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China was 71.49%, the operating rate of coal production was 70.00%, and the operating rate of non coal production was 68.85%, which was higher than that of last week.

In terms of units, at present, Zhejiang Petrochemical Company plans to start its new 750000 T / a MEG unit in Zhoushan on January 18, while Hengli 900000 T / a glycol unit and Inner Mongolia Rongxin 400000 T / a coal to glycol unit that have been tested before the festival are all planned to be produced and sold after a year, and the supply in February is expected to increase significantly in China.

As of January 16, the glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 354000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons or 1.14% compared with last Thursday’s decrease, and a decrease of 35000 tons or 0.98% compared with Monday’s decrease. Among them, Zhangjiagang has 175000 tons, the same as last Thursday; 65000 tons; Shanghai and Changshu have 24000 tons; Taicang has 47000 tons..

In the downstream, the overall operating rate of the downstream polyester industry has dropped to 74.71%, while the operating rate of most polyester and downstream textile industries can only be recovered in the second half of February.

3、 Analysis and prediction

The market price of glycol rose slightly earlier this week due to the expectation of tight supply caused by long-term low inventory. However, with the decrease of downstream construction, polyester end production and marketing ratio, oil and coal producers have lowered the price of glycol, and the market atmosphere has gradually weakened. After the festival, the new devices will continue to produce stably. During the Spring Festival, there will be some delayed arrival of cargo to the port, or it will cause accumulation of storage. Under the influence of many factors, the trend of glycol in the later period may be on the low side.