1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose first and then fell this week. The price of urea rose from 1813.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1816.67 yuan / ton on March 11, an increase of 0.18%, and then fell to 1813.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 5.49% compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s urea market was higher, with the urea commodity index at 84.34 on March 13.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong have risen and fallen. The weekend price of Yangmei plain urea is 1790 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the weekend price of Shandong Ruixing urea is 1810 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend price of Mingshui chemical urea is 1840 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: the current domestic market is mainly volatile. The demand for agriculture decreased, and the downstream industry made up for the low price. In terms of supply: at present, the start-up of urea enterprises continues to rise, and the overall supply has risen, while the logistics and transportation are normal, and the inventory pressure has eased, but the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers is relatively low. The short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.

Industry chain: the overall price of upstream products seems to have risen significantly: the price of natural gas rose slightly, with the quotation rising 1.38% from 3136.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3180.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 20.37% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose significantly this week, from 2916.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 11.43%, up 2.52% compared with the same period last year, On the whole, the urea cost this week is relatively strong. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with the price of 5933.33 yuan / ton. The purchasing capacity in the downstream was average, which had a negative impact on the price of urea. In the aspect of the downstream rubber plate plant, the enthusiasm for urea procurement is also weak.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of March, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business association think that at present, agricultural demand is weak, and the downstream industry is less active in urea procurement. At present, the domestic market is not relatively good, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.