1、 Price trend:

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is temporarily stable. The weekend average price is 4300 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 48.81% year on year.

2、 Market analysis:

Products: this week, the domestic market price trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable, the domestic PX operation rate is maintained at more than 70%, the operation of new 600000 ton Hongrun plant is stable, the operation of Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, the first line of Fuhai Chuang plant is started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load, Qilu Petrochemical plant is installed The plant is stable in operation. The Urumqi petrochemical plant starts at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, and the domestic p-xylene supply is normal. Due to the decline of crude oil price, the domestic p-xylene market price trend remains low. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is more than 70%, and the supply of PX in Asia is normal. The external price of PX fluctuates this week. As of the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia is 449-451 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 469-471 us dollars / ton CFR China. Affected by the drop of international crude oil price, the external price of PX is slightly lower this week, and more than 40% of domestic products need to be imported , the decline of closing price of PX external market has a certain negative impact on the domestic market, and the domestic PX market price remains low.

Industry chain: the closing price of international crude oil fell this week. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of main contracts in WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 16.50 yuan / barrel, and the settlement price of main contracts in Brent crude oil futures market was 24.79 USD / barrel. The price of International oil fell this week. Last week, US crude oil inventories jumped 15 million barrels to 516.6 million, about 9% higher than the five-year average. Analysts previously surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had expected crude oil inventories to increase by 13.8 million barrels compared with the previous week, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable. The price trend of PTA Market in the lower reaches of this week has declined. By the end of the week, the PTA Market in East China had been negotiated around 3200-3300 yuan. Recently, the starting load of PTA industry is 89%, far higher than the actual demand load of PTA corresponding to the current polyester operating rate. It is expected that the contradiction between PTA supply and demand will continue to increase in the later period, and the industry inventory will rise again. The cumulative export of China’s textiles and clothing will drop 17.7% year on year from January to March 2020 0%. The terminal weaving enterprises without orders have to stop production and have holidays. In recent years, Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving enterprises have been operating at a low level around 55%, 14% lower than the peak after the year, and nearly 30% lower than last year. The downstream market is poor, and the market price of p-xylene has remained at a low level.

Industry: this week, the textile industry is in a poor situation, and the export market has been greatly hit. However, affected by the lower crude oil price, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

3、 Future forecast:

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at business club, thinks that the crude oil price will remain low in the near future, but the inventory of downstream textile enterprises is high, the operating rate of downstream textile industry is average, and the supply of domestic PX market is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will keep a small decline next week.