1、 Price trend
According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of pure benzene on May 1 was 2750-3400 yuan / ton (average price 3020 yuan / ton), and on May 31, the price of pure benzene on May 31 was 3450-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3600 yuan / ton), up 580 yuan / ton from May 1, up 19.21% this month. The highest price of this month is from May 28 to 31, with a price of 3600 yuan / ton; the lowest price is from May 2 to 5, with a price difference of 640 yuan / ton, with a price of 2960 yuan / ton.
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2、 Analysis and comment
1. Crude oil: in May, international oil prices were generally good. Oil producing countries continued to push forward production reduction activities, and the demand for crude oil and refined oil rose to a certain extent. However, the market is still in a state of oscillation, and the uncertainty of trade relations affects the oil price. Compared with April 30, Brent oil price increased by 14.71 USD / barrel, or 74.78%; WTI oil price increased by 13.99 USD / barrel, or 64.03%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 32.385 USD / barrel, or 48.51%; WTI oil price decreased by 24.93 USD / barrel, or 41.02%.
2. Products: Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene five times this month, with a total increase of 700 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. But at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price.
3. Outer disk: boosted by the favorable crude oil, the outer disk oscillated higher in May. In May, South Korea’s import of pure benzene rose by 74.33 USD / ton, or 22.96%; East China’s import of pure benzene rose by 66 USD / ton, or 19.35%.
4. Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene in Shandong was 5100 yuan / ton on May 1, 5416.67 yuan / ton on May 29, up 6.21% this month. The highest price of this month is from May 19 to 24, with a price of 5500 yuan / ton. At present, the rise of styrene is mainly affected by crude oil, and the actual spot shipments are relatively small.
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Aniline: the price of aniline was 4800 yuan / ton on May 1, 4466.67 yuan / ton on May 29, down 6.94% this month. Aniline fell twice this month, while the rest remained stable. The MDI and auxiliary operating rate in the downstream of aniline are still low, and the demand for aniline is insufficient.
3、 Future forecast
1. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producing countries are considering extending the cut to the end of 2020. OPEC will hold another meeting on June 10 to continue to pay attention to the production reduction meeting. And oil price is not only affected by supply and demand, but also by economic constraints. Uncertainty in trade relations could trigger oil price shocks.
2. Market: it is heard that the turnover of pure benzene is 3600 yuan / ton in May, 3680-3700 yuan / ton in June, 3760 yuan / ton in July and 3800 yuan / ton in August. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has increased, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, or the pure benzene market has been affected.
In the long run, the market price of pure benzene will continue to rise, but the short-term oscillation still exists.
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