According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of June 5, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 6733 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton higher than that of this Monday, 8% higher in the week, and 933 yuan / ton higher than that of early May, 16% higher.

Brief review of butanone market in May

First, briefly review the market trend of butanone in May. After the labor day in May, the price of domestic butanone market rebounded rapidly on the 6th and 7th. At that time, the main advantages were driven by the sharp rise of acetone and the low level of factory inventory after replenishment of positions in the downstream before the festival. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of the 7th, the reference average price of domestic butanone factory was 6233 yuan / ton, 433 yuan / ton higher than that before the festival, and then the market maintained stable operation for a week, The main reason is that the release of downstream demand is still insufficient and the rise is weak. Until May 15, the factory had a strong desire to increase, and the price slightly increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. However, the real problems of the supply and demand side still exist, and the downstream conflicted with the high price mentality. On May 19, the market rebounded at a stage, the factory failed to meet the inventory pressure, and the quotation slightly decreased. In the following days, the market was mainly narrow. Until the 25th, affected by the sharp rise of acetone and crude oil market, the mentality of butanone market players improved, the contradiction between supply and demand eased, and the market quotation rebounded. As of May 31, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory reference price of butanone in China was 6233 yuan / ton, up 433 yuan / ton or 7.47% compared with that at the beginning of the month. The maximum amplitude is 7.47%.

Analysis and forecast of market situation in June

At the end of May, the steady rising momentum of the market supported the butanone market in June. Since the beginning of June, with the sharp rise of crude oil market and the sharp rise of acetone market, the butanone market has been strongly supported. The mentality of butanone market players is improving, and the downstream market is also replenishing, and the market price keeps rising with the increase of demand. Since the beginning of the month, the butanone market has been rising for 5 consecutive days. As of June 5, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory reference price of butanone in China has risen to 6733 yuan / ton. Compared with June 1, it has risen 500 yuan / ton in 5 days, an increase of 8%. Compared with the beginning of May, it has risen 933 yuan / ton, an increase of 16%. At present, the reference factory price of domestic butanone in East China market is around 6900 yuan / ton, which has rebounded about 900 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May; the reference factory price of domestic butanone in North China market is around 6500 yuan / ton, which has rebounded about 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May; the reference factory price of domestic butanone in South China market is around 7200 yuan / ton, which has rebounded about 1100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May.

In terms of supply and demand, in May, Fushun Petrochemical resumed the operation of 30000 T / a plant, with a small increase in supply. At present, butanone plant in June has been operating smoothly in the near future, and there is no maintenance plan. On the downstream side, the process of domestic resumption of production is good. For the next demand expectation in June, the commencement of downstream adhesives and slurry is expected to be further improved.

In terms of cost, with the sharp rise of butanone price in the first week of June, the industry profit should be increased compared with the previous period, and the profit will increase accordingly. At present, the production enthusiasm of butanone enterprises has been improved, and the downstream demand has been gradually opened. It is hoped that the butanone market will recover a good profit in the early stage as soon as possible.

On the whole, the market price of butanone showed signs of stopping falling and rising at the end of May. In June, the supply and demand of butanone market was more optimistic than that in the earlier stage, the confidence of the industry was improved, and the factory inventory was low. In the first week of June, the price of butanone rose for 5 consecutive days, and the market was affected by the rising of international crude oil 6, with a positive attitude. As a result, there is little room for the butanone industry’s production profit to continue to fall sharply.

The butanone analyst of the business agency boldly predicted that the inflection point of the butanone market might be this month. Of course, considering the market trend of the narrow volatility of the butanone market in May, and the market impact from the macro perspective, the following market may still have insufficient supply and demand benefits, as well as the great uncertainty of external factors such as foreign public health events and exports, the domestic butanone market will not be excluded There is still the possibility of another decline.