1、 Price data

As of June 19, the average ex factory price of domestic main refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 4500 yuan / ton, down 1.69% from 4580 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was about 4400-4500 yuan / ton.

On June 18, the naphtha commodity index was 55.79, down 0.49 points from yesterday, 45.63% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and 32.08% higher than 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Naphtha prices fell slightly this week, with ample inventories.

Upstream: according to the monitoring of the business news agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 37.12 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 39.05 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of more than 5%; Brent crude oil is 39.72 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 41.51 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of 4.80%. At the OPEC + ministerial meeting, the assessment of the record production reduction agreement released a signal of increased implementation rate of production reduction, offsetting some emotional disturbance of demand concerns caused by the epidemic. Crude oil prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, and the naphtha drop was mostly affected by the sharp drop in crude oil prices last week.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic toluene market price fell this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3550 yuan / ton, down 2.47% on last week. The domestic xylene market price also declined this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3650 yuan / ton, down 2.39% on last week. The domestic inventory pressure is gradually prominent, and the risk of oversupply is once again hyped.

3、 Future forecast

According to energy analysts of business club, this week’s naphtha refining fell slightly, with sufficient inventory and general downstream purchasing sentiment. It is expected that the price of naphtha refining and hydrogenation will continue to decline in the near future, with the average price range of 4100-4400 yuan / ton.