1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda was mainly weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price in Shandong market was about 515 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price in Shandong market was 512.5 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 0.49% and 26.26% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on July 9 was 73.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 64.35% from the highest point 206.87 in the cycle (November 14, 2017), and increased by 9.03% from the lowest point of 67.63 on May 10, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of domestic liquid caustic soda is basically stable, the awareness of upstream price is strong, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the price of caustic soda in Shandong will be stable in the later stage, and the price will be weak. At present, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is 490-550 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 1400-1450 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, and 600-630 yuan / ton in Zhejiang market. There are not many flake caustic soda in stock, and it is said that northwest manufacturers have strong willingness to raise prices. At present, the market quotation of Northwest just needs to be stable. The price of flake caustic soda is 1750-1850 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, 2050-2100 yuan / ton in East China market, and 2200-2250 yuan / ton in Guangdong market. This week, the supply of caustic soda is limited, and the production reduction devices are mainly in Shandong Province, but the market supply is still sufficient.

This week, the domestic liquid chlorine market rose and fell, but the overall following behavior was dominant. At the beginning of the week, Shandong market was affected by the early high price, the market price decreased narrowly, the market trading atmosphere became weak, and the manufacturers’ inventory gradually increased. During the week, with the equipment load of Dongying manufacturers in the middle and East decreased, the overall supply of goods decreased, the regional inventory was digested, and the market turned to be stable. But at present, the market transaction situation is still not optimistic.

Demand: in recent years, the price of aluminum fluctuates more strongly, and the enthusiasm of electrolytic aluminum enterprises to increase and resume production is high. With the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the demand for raw materials in the later stage shows an increasing trend. However, some alumina plants are still in the state of reduction and shutdown, and the enterprises have strong willingness to stand up for sale. In the low season of caustic soda demand and the expectation of future maintenance, the domestic caustic soda market is mainly in shock and deadlock.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 26th week (6.29-7.3) of 2020, there are 0 kinds of commodities rising and 2 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and there are 3 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities that fell were calcium carbide (- 4.26%) and PVC (- 0.48%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.95%.

Business agency analysts believe that: equipment maintenance of some chlor alkali enterprises supports the market, but the overall supply of goods in the market is still sufficient. In addition, the downstream is in the low-season of high-temperature demand, most of the caustic soda enterprises still have pressure to ship. It is expected that the market price of caustic soda will continue to be stable in the short term.