1、 Price trend
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According to the data of business agency, on September 18, the average price of domestic LNG was 2373.33 yuan / ton, up 0.14% from the beginning of the week, 1.39% lower than the beginning of the month, 3.26% month on month, and 18.16% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, domestic liquefied natural gas prices first depressed and then rose slightly. At the beginning of the week, the domestic LNG level was slightly higher, the liquid price was slightly lower, and the shipment was smooth in the middle and late weeks, and the price was steadily increased. At present, the domestic LNG market as a whole is still operating stably, with the rise and fall of individual regions showing mutual rise and fall. The quotation of liquid plants is adjusted in a narrow range according to their own shipment situation. Among them, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places have a strong atmosphere of adjustment, but the increase is not large. After the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the current inventory pressure is not big, the shipment situation is improved, the superimposed weather turns cool, the bad factors in the off-season demand gradually fade, the market transaction is stable, and the market is expected to continue to rise, but the market supply is abundant, or will inhibit the liquid price to have a large increase. In the short term, the domestic LNG market may continue to be stable and fluctuate slightly.
In terms of supply and demand, the overall operating rate is around 60% this week, and the operating rate in some areas has decreased. On the 18th, Hubei Huanggang liquid plant resumed production and sales, and other liquid plants with larger production capacity also have plans to start operation in the near future, and the on-site supply has steadily increased. In the near future, the arrival time is dense, the import gas is sufficient, and the price is relatively stable. The downstream vehicle demand is better, the industrial gas consumption is slightly improved, the overall market demand is better than before, but less than expected, and the support is limited.
Natural gas production slowed down in August, according to the National Bureau of statistics. The growth rate of natural gas import has changed from negative to positive. In August, 14.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points slower than that of the previous month; the average daily output was 460 million cubic meters, which was the same as last month. From January to August, 122.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas was produced, an increase of 8.8% year on year. In August, the import of natural gas was 9.36 million tons, up 12.3% year-on-year, and decreased by 6.4% last month. From January to August, the import of natural gas was 65.07 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%.
As of September 18, the average price of domestic LNG was 2373.33 yuan / ton, that of Inner Mongolia was around 2380 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi was 2490 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi was 2610 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang was 2410 yuan / ton, and that of Ningxia was 2390 yuan / ton. The overall price of liquid was stable and fluctuated in a narrow range.
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Production capacity rose and fell on September 14
Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 cubic meters / day 2350 yuan / ton 2350 yuan / ton
Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 2400 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 0
Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day 2350 yuan / ton 2350 yuan / ton
Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 2370 yuan / ton 2360 yuan / ton 10
Shengdazizhou: 1 million cubic meters / day, 2450 yuan / ton, 2450 yuan / ton
Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2930 yuan / ton: 2930 yuan / ton
Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2400 yuan / ton 2380 yuan / ton 20 yuan
Qinshui Xinao — 2700 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton 50 yuan
Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day: 2700 yuan / ton: 2700 yuan / ton
Naomao lake, Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million m3 / day, 1900 yuan / ton, 1900 yuan / ton
For the downstream liquid ammonia, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions this week, while Hebei continued to maintain the steady state last week. The price in Shandong first fell and then rose, and the price stabilized at the weekend, At the beginning of this week, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong decreased for two consecutive days, the range was about 150 yuan / ton, and the price rose slightly at the weekend. Before the beginning of the week, the main equipment of large factories was still in the maintenance period, the liquid ammonia shipment increased significantly, the manufacturers’ inventory pressure gradually increased, and the enterprise’s quotation was mainly based on the corresponding margin. However, at the end of the week, the enterprise’s equipment material returned to stability, so the price stabilized and rebounded slightly In the near future, prices will remain stable.
Urea, Shandong urea factory quotation rose. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply. The average price of urea is expected to rise after short-term fluctuation of 1700 tons.
Due to the influence of enterprises’ negative pressure and low inventory, the spot supply of dichloromethane in Shandong decreased slightly. In addition to the high price of liquid chlorine for raw materials, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province rose strongly. At present, the inventory pressure of dichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong is not big. In addition, some traders prepare goods before the festival, and the downstream buyers have a strong mentality, and the enterprises have good intention of supporting prices. It is expected that they will be strong in a short period of time.
3、 Future forecast
LNG analysts from the business agency believe that: as the weather turns cool, the effect of negative factors in the off-season is weakening, the market trading is relatively stable, and the shipment in some regions turns smooth, and the price rises. However, near the holidays, in order to avoid poor transportation during the holidays, the factories usually promote before the festival, and the on-site supply is abundant. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will remain stable and have a downward trend in the short term.
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