1、 Price trend

 

Gamma PGA

According to the business club’s big list data, this week pure benzene stopped rising and turned down. On October 25, the listed price of pure benzene was 3580-3700 yuan / ton (the average price was 3625 yuan / ton); this Sunday (November 1), the listed price of pure benzene was 3350-3650 yuan / ton (the average price was 3575 yuan / ton), down 50 yuan / ton or 1.38% compared with last week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

This week, pure benzene showed a downward trend, mainly driven by the drop in crude oil. Although the price rise of styrene in the downstream has brought benefits, the fundamentals of pure benzene itself are weak, the entry of downstream units is delayed, the port inventory is high, and the market focus is weak.

 

In terms of external market, on Friday (October 30), the import of pure benzene from South Korea was 450.33 US dollars / ton, up 7.66 US dollars / ton, or 1.73% compared with October 23; and that of East China was 459 US dollars / ton, up 9.5 US dollars / ton, or 2.11% compared with October 23.

 

In terms of crude oil, the impact of public health events in Europe and the United States intensified, the blockade measures tightened, the market worried about weak demand, and the international oil price fell sharply. Compared with October 23, Brent fell $5.03 per barrel, or 12.2%, while WTI fell $3.7 per barrel, or 9.28%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 45.77%, and WTI decreased by 40.51%.

 

Downstream: the fundamentals of styrene were positive, although the crude oil and styrene futures fell at the beginning of the week, but they rose rapidly in the later period. On November 1, the price of styrene in Shandong Province was 7050 yuan / ton, up 316.67 yuan / ton, or 4.7%, compared with last week.

 

Aniline prices continue to maintain stable this week, enterprises no pressure to ship, supply and demand balance. On November 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6700-6800 yuan / ton

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, the impact of public health events intensified, and it is expected that oil prices will continue to be under pressure next week. Pay attention to the progress of the consultation on the US economic stimulus package.

 

The port pressure of pure benzene is still under pressure, and the process of de stocking is slow. In addition, the price difference between internal and external markets is large, and the import pressure is increasing. However, in November, the downstream is expected to have new demand, which has a certain support for the price of pure benzene, and the pure benzene has a good resistance to fall. It is expected that the trend of pure benzene will remain weak and stable next week.

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