1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on November 13, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3700 yuan / ton, down 67 yuan / ton or 1.77% from last week.

On November 12, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3665 yuan / ton, down 65 yuan / ton or 1.74% compared with the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of November 12, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1117900 tons, an increase of 17900 tons or 1.63% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 23500 tons or 2.15% compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, Zhangjiagang and Taicang have significantly improved this week compared with last week, with an average daily shipment of about 7300 tons in Zhangjiagang and 5500 tons in Taicang.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 61%, slightly higher than that of last week; the operating rate of polyester is about 87%, which is basically the same as last week.

In terms of units, the annual output of 720000 tons of ethylene glycol unit of South Asia Line 4 in Taiwan is planned to start shutdown and maintenance on November 5, and the overhaul lasts for 30 days; Xinjiang Tianye has added 600000 tons of ethylene glycol unit, with the capacity of 400000 tons and the load increased to 80%.

3、 Analysis and prediction

This week, ethylene glycol futures prices rose first and then decreased, turning point occurred on Thursday. At the beginning of the week, due to the impact of warmer downstream demand, the market bullish intention is positive. In the follow-up, due to the poor situation of overseas epidemic situation, and the addition and restart of domestic devices, the supply rose again. At the same time, although polyester maintained a stable operating rate, production and sales fell with the shift of chemical fiber peak season. Due to the accumulation of various adverse factors, ethylene glycol has accumulated again after one month’s drawdown. In the short term, the demand for ethylene glycol has not improved significantly, and the expectation of price rise will be greatly weakened.