In November, the international oil price continued to push up, and it has been rising for four consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 24, the growth rate of American oil was 24.16%, and that of Brent crude oil was 24.88%. At present, the oil price has reached the highest point in recent eight months.

On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation.

On November 24, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $44.91/barrel, up $1.85 or 4.29%. Crude oil futures prices, or Brent, rose sharply at US $72.1/barrel. WTI rose by more than 4%, reaching the highest level since March, mainly boosted by the good news of vaccines and the impact of the beginning of power transfer by US President Biden.

Under the background that the epidemic situation has not been controlled, especially in Europe and the United States, the number of new cases remains high. The market is particularly looking forward to the success of the vaccine, and vaccine breakthrough has stimulated the nerve of market demand. Judging from the recent positive news of vaccines: on November 9, Pfizer announced that the effectiveness of the research and development vaccine was more than 90%; on the 18th, the company said that its effectiveness was more than 95%. The novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine released by Moderna, a US biotechnology company, reported that its effective rate reached 94.5%. On the 16 day, third vaccines appeared on the 24 day. British Pharmaceutical Company AstraZeneca said Monday that its new crown vaccine was effective in the key tests, and it was expected to rise to 90%. This is the third new weapon for the world to fight against the new coronavirus.

OPEC + has also been releasing positive signals on production reduction recently. On November 16, OPEC + held a meeting of the Joint Technical Committee and the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee. After discussing whether to postpone the production increase plan in January, the OPEC + ministerial joint monitoring committee said to the outside world that it should be vigilant and respond to the demand of the oil market. Although the current scale of production reduction has not been clearly maintained, the market generally has expectations. However, the implementation rate of production reduction in October dropped from 101% in September to 96%. The market will wait for the outcome of the OPEC + ministerial meeting on November 30.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia is still a factor that puzzles the oil market. Worldometer website real-time statistics show that around November 25th, around 6:30 Beijing time, 60043895 cases of new crown pneumonia were diagnosed globally, 1413229 cases were cumulative deaths, and 117 cases were confirmed by more than 10000 cases. In Europe, France will lift the nationwide “city closure” implemented at the end of last month in three stages, and may be affected by restrictive measures in the short term. Various signs show that the current fuel demand is still not optimistic. Standard Chartered Bank expects that the global oil demand in 2020 will decline by 9.68 million barrels / day compared with that in 2019. Demand in Asia is stable, especially in China, where refining capacity has recovered to pre epidemic levels.

In addition, crude oil inventory data showed a negative performance. On November 24, the US Petroleum Institute (API) released a report on Tuesday showing that US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased in the latest week, while distillate oil inventories fell. U.S. crude oil inventories rose 3.8 million barrels in the week ended November 20, with analysts expecting an increase of 127000 tons, according to the report. U.S. gasoline inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels, after analysts had expected an increase of 614000 barrels. Both crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, indicating that refinery operating rates are declining and US crude oil demand is still weak.

According to the business agency, with the release of good news on vaccines and the transfer of power by the president of the United States, more oil prices may return to the supply and demand side. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the results of the OPEC + 30 meeting. On the other hand, Libya’s increase in production has also brought variables to the supply, and the superimposed epidemic situation has not improved. Therefore, it can be said that there are many obstacles to the upward oil price. The market is still volatile in the near future, which may be stimulated by more news and increase the amplitude.