1、 Price trend

 

povidone Iodine

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene stopped rising and turned to falling this week. On February 28, the price of pure benzene was 6500-6850 yuan / ton (average price was 6690 yuan / ton); on Sunday (March 7), the price of pure benzene was 6400-6850 yuan / ton (average price was 6670 yuan / ton), the average price was 20 yuan / ton lower than last week, a decrease of 0.3%; it was 29.51% higher than the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

In the early stage, the price of pure benzene rose rapidly due to the positive external news. However, the price of pure benzene rose too fast in the early stage, and the resistance of the downstream to high price pure benzene was strong. In the early stage of this week, crude oil fell, the external market softened sharply, the downstream styrene fell in shock, the good news was released, the market took profits, and the price fell. However, the willingness of the industry to lower out is low, and Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price of 6750 yuan / ton is stable, and the market decline is limited.

 

In terms of external market, the price of pure benzene fluctuated downward this week. With the recovery of styrene plants in Europe and the United States, the capital of styrene industry was withdrawn, and the external market of styrene declined, which led to the external market of pure benzene falling. On Friday (March 5), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 862.33 US dollars / ton, down 35.34 US dollars / ton, down 3.94% compared with February 26, and the reference price of import in East China was 887 US dollars / ton, down 28 US dollars / ton, down 3.06% compared with February 26.

 

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fell first and then rose this week. In the early stage, the market worried that the rapid rise of oil price would lead to the return of more production capacity, and OPEC + might increase production. However, at the OPEC + meeting on the 4th, it was decided to maintain the current scale of production reduction until the end of April, and Saudi Arabia will still reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day, boosting crude oil prices. On February 26, Brent rose $3.085/barrel, or 4.68%; WTI rose $4.69/barrel, or 7.66%.

 

Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene fluctuated and fell. On March 5, the price of sample enterprises was 9366.67 yuan / ton, down 316.66 yuan / ton or 3.27% from last week, and up 41.56% from the same period last year. The price of crude oil went up; the supply of ethylene weakened and the price rose; pure benzene was mainly weak and styrene cost side support was acceptable.

 

Aniline: the aniline plant of Jiangsu Fuqiang was overhauled within a week, and some units in Jinling were put into operation at reduced load. Aniline enterprise inventory low, price rise. The main aniline plants in Shandong are expected to be overhauled and the supply is expected to decrease; the demand for downstream polymerization MDI and rubber additives is strong, the price is high, the profit margin is good, and the demand for aniline is good. The market is bullish on the short-term aniline Market. On March 5, the price of aniline was 11200-11500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 11400-11500 yuan / ton in Nanjing, up 5.88% from last week and 68.47% from the same period last year.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + continues to extend the production reduction period, and the oil price is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

 

Downstream: the profit margin of downstream products is large, and most of the inventory is low, the spot buying is more active, and the demand for pure benzene is better supported. Styrene: the operating rate of downstream EPS is increased, and the demand for styrene is strong. In addition, I heard that the export volume of styrene is expected to reach 70000 tons in March. With the coming of “gold, silver and silver”, the speed of port delivery will be accelerated. In the case of low import volume, the port inventory is expected to drop to less than 100000 tons in the month. It is expected that styrene will fluctuate strongly in the short term.

 

Internationally, with the recovery of styrene plants in Europe and the United States, the shortage of styrene supply eased, and the price of pure benzene in Europe and the United States fell back. In China, the replenishment of pure benzene at the main port from March to April is limited, and the downstream profit level of pure benzene is high, and the demand for pure benzene is good. It is expected that the speed of going to the warehouse will be improved. At present, the pure benzene market is greatly affected by styrene and crude oil, and it is expected that it will still fluctuate in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

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