1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose from 2070.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2116.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.25%, 18.25% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 98.45 on March 19.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2120 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2100 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2130 yuan / ton this weekend, up 60 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

On the demand side: most of the agricultural demand is used as soon as it is purchased, the willingness of terminal purchasing is general, and the agricultural purchasing in mainstream areas is cautious; the start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and plastic plate plants rises slightly, and the small orders follow up, and most of them follow the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient. Based on the rising demand of many local industries, the positive impact of Indian bidding, the improvement of domestic market mentality, and the willingness of some manufacturers to support prices.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea rose sharply this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, from 3350.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3643.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 8.76%, 14.21% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 3410.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3566.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.59% , up 9.18% from the same period last year. This week, the quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea decreased slightly, from 8100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8033.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a sharp increase of 0.82%, up 47.85% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, urea cost support is good and demand is good this week.

3、 Future forecast

In late March, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that the current agricultural demand procurement is cautious, the industrial demand is used as soon as it is purchased, and the urea supply is acceptable. However, the bidding in India will start soon. It is expected that the domestic urea market will fluctuate slightly in the short term, and more attention will be paid to the bidding in India in the future.