1、 Price trend

According to the data on the big list of business agencies, toluene prices rose first and then fell this week, and overall, they fell from last week. On May 16, the price of toluene was 5986.2 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (May 23) was 5926 yuan / ton, down 60.2 yuan / ton, or 0.5% from last week; It was 65.55 per cent higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The prophase good news is not supported enough, downstream demand is still weak, toluene prices rose first and then fell this week. On the external market, the European aromatics unit was restarted and supply increased, which led to the decline of the Asian external market. As of May 21, the price of imported toluene in South Korea was 767 USD / T, up 2 USD / T, or 0.26% in the week, compared with May 14; The price of toluene imported from East China was US $789 / T, up $1 / T, or 0.13% in the week, on May 14.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose first and then fell continuously during the week. In the early stage, driven by the optimistic prospect of demand recovery in Europe and the United States, international oil prices rose; However, we heard that the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran have made progress, and the market is worried about the supply of crude oil or the increase of bad oil price, so the oil price turns down. Compared with May 14, Brent fell by $2.15/barrel, or 3.11%; WTI fell $1.78 per barrel, or 2.72%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI prices in East China are continuous, with domestic products of 14000 yuan / ton, down 3.67% from last week, up 27.27% compared with the same period last year. Domestic market is weak operation, market offer is low, the mentality of the industry is short, the atmosphere of on-site trading and investment is weak, downstream inquiry is low, the shipment is not smooth, TDI market is rigid and tidy.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price this week remained stable, with the price of 6400 yuan / ton, 60% year-on-year. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on the PX market. As of May 21, the closing prices in Asia were US $814-816 / T FOB Korea and US $832-834 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, recovery of industrial chain, economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and related progress of financial stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The recent nuclear discussions in the United States and Iran may be negative for oil prices. The crude oil market is full of uncertainty and may decline in the short term. The downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. In general, toluene is still weak in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of blending price of crude oil and gasoline, the maintenance of toluene plant, the arrival volume of toluene in the later period and the influence of downstream demand on the price of toluene