Recovery of cobalt Market

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated and rose in May, and the cobalt price bottomed out and rebounded. As of May 31, the price of cobalt was 351000.00 yuan / ton, up 1.74% from 345000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (May 1). Cobalt price bottomed out and rebounded. Cobalt market rebounded.

Domestic cobalt market demand

According to the data released by China Academy of information technology, from January to April 2021, the total domestic mobile phone market shipment reached 125 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%. However, compared with the increase of 92.8%, 240.9% and 65.9% in the first three months, the overall domestic mobile phone shipment in April showed a year-on-year decline of 34.1%.

According to the latest data released by China Automobile Association, in April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 216000 and 206000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times and 1.8 times respectively. In terms of power battery output, in April 2021, the output of ternary battery in China was 6.7gwh, accounting for 51.9% of the total output of power battery, with a year-on-year increase of 134.3% and a month on month increase of 15.1%; From January to April, the total output of ternary battery was 24.5gwh, accounting for 53.6% of the total output of power battery, with a year-on-year cumulative increase of 185.8%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have increased greatly, which is good for the cobalt market. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased in April on a month on month basis, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected. In terms of ternary batteries, the proportion of ternary batteries declined in April, and the output growth of ternary batteries slowed down. Overall, in terms of new energy vehicles and power batteries, the demand of cobalt market rose, but the rise was less than expected. The rising power of cobalt market was less than expected, and the rising power of cobalt Market weakened.

According to customs statistics, in April, the output of mobile phones was 130 million, up 13.5% year on year; The output of microcomputer equipment was 35.9 million, up 13.5% year on year. From January to April, China exported 71.35 million laptops, up 72.3% year on year; 310 million mobile phones were exported, up 30.8% year on year. The output of electronic products has increased greatly, and the export has also increased rapidly. The good performance of the electronic products industry has stimulated the surge of demand in the cobalt market, and there is sufficient momentum for the future rise of the cobalt market.

Global cobalt market demand

According to the report of global mobile phone shipment volume in the first quarter of 2021 released by strategy analytics, a statistical agency, the global smart phone shipment volume in the first quarter of 2021 was 340 million, an increase of 24% over the same period last year, reaching a new high since 2015. On May 23, CITIC Securities released a research report forecast that, looking forward to the second quarter and the whole year of 2021, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of smartphone shipment may slow down, and the annual global smartphone shipment is expected to be 1.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5%; It was originally expected that the global smartphone shipment in 2021 will be 1.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The growth of mobile phone sales has stimulated the demand of cobalt market, but the global mobile phone shipment is expected to decline, which may have a negative impact on the demand expectation of cobalt Market in the future, and the downward pressure of cobalt Market in the future will increase.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the new energy automobile industry and mobile phone industry performed strongly in the past 21 years, and the production and sales volume increased greatly in the first quarter, which stimulated the cobalt market to rise sharply; However, with the impact of India’s epidemic situation and chip shortage, the growth of new energy vehicle and mobile phone industry slowed down in the second quarter, and there was a partial downward trend. The demand of cobalt market was lower than expected, and the cobalt market was dragged down, and the cobalt price began to fluctuate slightly in March; But on the whole, there is still room for cobalt market demand to rise, and affected by the epidemic, cobalt freight and mining costs increase, cobalt costs rise, cobalt market decline space is limited. In the future, the cost of cobalt market remains high, the space for cobalt price to fall is limited, the demand of cobalt market is difficult to meet the expectation, and the power for cobalt price to rise is insufficient. Cobalt price is expected to rise slightly in the future.