On June 21, international oil prices rose sharply, and the settlement price of main contracts in WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $73.12/barrel, up $1.48 or 2.07%. Brent crude oil futures market main contract settlement price at $74.90/barrel, up $1.39 or 1.90%. WTI and Brent crude oil have set a record high since October 2018. Confidence in sustained economic recovery and strong demand growth, and the expected delay in the resumption of U.S. – Iran nuclear talks in the presidential election in Iran may signal a delay in the return of Iranian supply to the market. On the macro level, the previous Hawks’ suggestion about the Fed’s interest rate hike gradually dissipated, market sentiment improved, US stock market rebounded sharply on Monday, the dollar continued to weaken, and benefited from risky assets such as crude oil denominated in US dollars.

On the basic aspect of supply and demand, oil prices are still positive, and as of the 21st, oil prices have risen for two consecutive days. Previously, OPEC officials have publicly said that the US oil production is expected to increase by about 200000 barrels / day this year and that in 2022, oil production will increase by 500000-1.3 million barrels / day. The conservative forecast of limited oil growth has brought the oil price rise momentum. The market gives positive feedback to OPEC to control oil price by adjusting supply volume, and the oil price has risen significantly on Friday.

It is doubtful that the restart of the Iraq nuclear agreement will bring great benefits to oil prices in the short term. In the presidential election of Iran, Laixi, the hardcore leader, won the election with a vote rate of 62%, becoming the new president of Iran. Because the market generally expects that the government in this field is relatively tough, it may affect the further reaching of the Iran nuclear agreement. Talks to restart Iran’s nuclear deal were suspended on Sunday after Mr. Reich won the presidential election, according to the latest news. It is reported that the consultation is expected to be suspended for about 10 days. The progress of relevant consultations needs to be continued in the later period.

There are signs that fuel demand is still recovering continuously. North America’s driving peak season boosted fuel demand. Goldman Sachs expects crude oil consumption to reach 9.9 million barrels / day in August, and 97million barrels / day in the near future. The optimistic forward-looking analysis of institutions also brings positive effects on the market. In addition, the EIA prospective survey on Monday showed that U.

Crude oil analysts of business agency believe that the short-term oil price rise is strong, on the one hand, it is guided by good news from supply and demand, and on the other hand, the market is still confident about the future. But the current high oil price also means the accumulation of risk, and the short-term risk point is the progress of the Iraq nuclear agreement. In the medium and long term, the epidemic is still the key point of risk. The attendance rate of Tokyo Olympic Games is set to halve, the UK continues the blockade policy in some areas, the emergence of variant viruses and so on. All these factors may set obstacles for the upstream of crude oil. The future market needs to be cautious and optimistic.