1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fell continuously this week. On August 8, the price of toluene was 5820 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 15), the price was 5772.2 yuan / ton, down 0.68% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 70.78%.

2、 Analysis and review

Toluene port inventory increased this week. Demand in South and central China was weak, business transactions were poor, and toluene prices fell. Affected by the spread of delta virus, the shipment of enterprises in East China was blocked and the price was deadlocked. Crude oil fluctuated widely during the week, and the mentality of operators was empty under the influence of cost uncertainty.

In terms of external market, as of August 13, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $764 / T, up US $1 / T or 0.13% month on month (MOM) on August 6.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta virus has dragged down the market mentality, and the market is worried that the growth of demand will be restrained. However, the decline in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories led to a rebound in oil prices. It is reported that the number of active oil rigs in the United States this week increased by 10 compared with last week and 225 compared with the same period last year. On August 6, Brent fell by US $0.11/barrel, or 0.16%; WTI rose US $0.16/barrel, or 0.23%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China continued to decline this week. The price of domestic goods was 14350 yuan / ton, down 2.71% from last week and up 16.35% from the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is weak, the atmosphere in the venue is cold, the offer of cargo holders continues to be lowered, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is not high, and there are a few orders in the market. Affected by public health events, the transaction in the terminal market is limited, and the market is weak.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price this week was flat compared with last week, at 7300 yuan / ton, up 58.7% compared with the same period last year. As of August 12, the closing prices in Asia were USD 916-918 / T FOB Korea and USD 934-936 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to OPEC + production increase, U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventory data, global stock market and economic data, the latest epidemic situation and geographical situation.

The cost side is uncertain, and the support for p-toluene is limited; Weak downstream demand and bearish outlook of operators. It is expected that the weak operation will continue next week. At present, we mainly focus on the change of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market trend on toluene price.