1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of toluene rose slightly this week. On September 17, the price of toluene was 5660 yuan / ton; The price on Sunday (September 26) was 5680.4 yuan / ton, up 0.36% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 64.17%.

2、 Analysis and review

The price of related aromatics fell, the fundamental support of toluene market was weak, and the weak and stable trend continued in the first half of the week. Crude oil rose continuously during the week. Supported by the raw material end, the price of toluene rose slightly, but the demand still restricted the increase.

In terms of the outer disk, the outer disk continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. As of September 24, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $801 / T, up US $12 / T or 1.52% month on month from September 17.

In terms of crude oil, U.S. crude oil inventories fell continuously, U.S. oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico recovered slowly, and the market was worried about tight crude oil supply. Crude oil rose sharply this week. On September 17, Brent rose $2.75 / barrel, or 3.65%; WTI rose $2.01/barrel, or 2.79%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fluctuated downward this week, and domestic goods executed 14100 yuan / ton, down 1.17% from last week and 20.93% from the same period last year. There is no inventory pressure due to the equipment maintenance of many TDI factories in China. Under the dual control policy of energy consumption, the downstream demand is general, the transaction downstream of the terminal is not smooth, the downstream follows up rationally, just needs to buy, the trading atmosphere on the site is light, and the operator’s mentality is mainly wait-and-see.

In terms of PX market, in terms of PX market, the trend of domestic PX was temporarily stable this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton, an increase of 54.35% over the same period last year. As of September 24, the closing prices in Asia were USD 898-900 / T FOB Korea and USD 916-918 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the demand for fuel oil is promising, the market expects tight crude oil supply, and the oil price has the power to act. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

The demand side is the main factor affecting the trend of toluene at present. Although the trend of crude oil is good in the near future, the demand continues to be weak and toluene lacks upward momentum. Overall, toluene continued its weak and stable trend in the short term. Pay attention to the downstream goods preparation intention before the national day, the dynamics and demand of downstream units, and the impact of crude oil and external market trend on the price of toluene.