According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 28, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10333 yuan / ton. Compared with September 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 15466 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 5133 yuan / ton, a decrease of 33.19%.

In the first week of September, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed a slight upward trend. On the 5th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 15666 yuan / ton. Compared with the 1st, the average price rose by 200 yuan / ton, or 1.29%. Since the 6th, due to the weak demand, the quotation of n-butanol factory has continued to decline. On the 12th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to 14800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.52% compared with the beginning of the month.

In mid September, the policies of limiting production and electricity in all provinces were implemented, and the demand for n-butanol decreased significantly, and the market price fell sharply

As a major n-butanol supply and marketing Province, Shandong’s n-butanol unit basically operated normally in September and the supply in the site was normal, except for some planned shutdown and maintenance devices. However, since late September, due to power and production restrictions and other influencing factors, the demand for n-butanol in the downstream market has declined to a large extent. The operating rate of main products in the downstream of n-butanol is less than 40%, and even the operating rate of individual downstream products is less than 20%. Under the obvious reduction of demand, the market price of n-butanol began to decline sharply. As of the 25th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong has dropped to 12400 yuan / ton, Compared with the beginning of the month, the decline has reached 20%.

On the 26th, just four days before the national day, the downstream pre festival goods preparation was still average, and the sales pressure of n-butanol market was prominent. The n-butanol factory again significantly reduced the ex factory price of n-butanol by 1000-2000 yuan / ton. On the 26th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10333 yuan / ton, a single day decrease of 16.67% compared with the previous working day, Subsequently, the overall market was weak. As of September 28, compared with the beginning of the month, the decline of n-butanol in September had exceeded 33%.

In terms of index, on September 28, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 84.24, the same as yesterday, down 36.08% from the highest point of 131.79 in the cycle (2021-05-16), and up 181.83% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, at the end of September, the domestic propylene oxide Market in Shandong was highly stable. As of September 28, the average production price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 17333.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.11% compared with September 1 (16033.33 yuan / ton). At present, the raw material propylene has decreased steadily, the cost support is general, the production restriction policy affects propylene oxide and downstream operation load, the market is relatively stable, the overall trading atmosphere is general, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is increasing.

Future analysis of n-butanol

In September, after the price of n-butanol fell sharply, the downstream profit margin was better improved, which will also give some support to the start-up of downstream units after the National Day holiday. With the increase of downstream start-up, the demand enthusiasm will also increase. Therefore, analysts of business society believe that after the National Day holiday, the overall market demand for n-butanol in Shandong will be better in October than in mid and late September, Therefore, the market price of n-butanol is expected to pick up steadily after the festival.