Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 2620.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2562.50 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.19%, an increase of 41.31% over the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market has twists and turns this week, with an overall downward trend.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is general, and the urea supply is insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2750 yuan / ton this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2500 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Yangmei plain urea is quoted at 2500 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 7403.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7333.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.95%, a year-on-year increase of 114.63% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 1086.25 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 76.41% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell sharply. The quotation fell from 4896.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 4380.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 10.55%, a year-on-year increase of 43.61% over the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 18400.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 17533.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.71%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of urea is down as a whole, which has a negative impact on the price of urea.

From the perspective of demand: the demand is general, and the agricultural demand ends; The industry is just in need, the recommendation of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, the downstream compound fertilizer plant has not started to purchase urea on a large scale, the inventory of melamine enterprises is under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation is weakened. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, the supply decreases, and the daily output of urea is less than 130000 tons. On the whole, the urea cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand is general, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the urea supply is reduced.

The future price of urea is bearish

In late November, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period and the supply is tight, but the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have decreased slightly, the cost support is insufficient, and the future urea market price may fluctuate and fall slightly.