1、 Price data

As of November 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7838.25 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from 7850.75 yuan / ton on November 22. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7800-8000 yuan / ton.

As of November 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7322.50 yuan / ton, down 4.09% from 7635.00 yuan / ton on November 22. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7200-7400 yuan / ton.

On November 28, the naphtha commodity index was 96.74, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.39% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 129.02% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of hydrotreated naphtha in the local refinery increased first and then decreased. The price of straight run naphtha fell sharply. The refinery will reduce the price and ship the goods. The demand for olefins and aromatics in the terminal is weak, and the transaction is general.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose first and then declined this week. U.S. President Biden sought ways to reduce gasoline prices for U.S. consumers, repeatedly mentioned the idea of releasing U.S. strategic oil reserves, and called on China, Japan and South Korea to release crude oil reserves. As soon as the news came out, crude oil prices fell sharply. On the other hand, at present, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) production increase policy is still relatively conservative, and they still do not show the willingness to expand the scale of production increase under the pressure from the United States. In particular, the market is worried that if the US government continues to suppress oil prices and make oil prices fall sharply, OPEC + may even consider stopping production increase to offset the adverse impact of the decline in oil prices on the recovery of global oil capital expenditure.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of toluene rose this week. The price was 6370.00 yuan / ton on November 28 and 6210.20 yuan / ton on November 22, up 2.57%. Mixed xylene rose this week. The price of mixed xylene was 6100.00 yuan / ton on November 28 and 6020.00 yuan / ton on November 22, up 1.33%. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 28th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 47th week of 2021 (11.22-11.26), there are 8 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.25%), WTI crude oil (3.23%) and asphalt (2.77%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coking coal (- 10.84%), coke (- 7.05%) and petroleum coke (- 7.01%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.56%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the refinery has cut prices and shipped goods recently, the demand for olefins and aromatics at the terminal is weak, the transaction is general, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may focus on the weak.