1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners continued to rise this week. On December 26, the average price in Shandong market was 2708.75 yuan / ton, up 5.45% from 2568.75 yuan / ton on December 20.

On December 26, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 210.68, the same as yesterday, down 19.65% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 214.96% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 30, 2012)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the refinery delivered well and the transaction was positive. The inventory of some refineries was low and the price continued to rise.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the symptoms of Omicron infection cases were mild. Even though the epidemic cases in Europe and the United States increased sharply, the symptoms were relatively mild, and the impact of the epidemic on the market was weakened. In addition, oil and gas exploitation in the United States has increased, which has a certain negative impact on oil prices. Second, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that the decline in US crude oil inventories last week exceeded market expectations, which benefited the oil market. In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) controlled production, it is unlikely that Iranian oil will return to the international market in the near future, the oil market remains in a tight balance, and the oil price has been supported.

Downstream: Calcined coke prices remained stable as a whole this week; The market price of metal silicon continued to decline; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of December 26, the price was 20093.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 51st week of 2021 (12.20-12.24), there are 11 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 2 commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (6.83%), petroleum coke (5.45%) and WTI crude oil (4.34%). There are 4 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were steam coal (- 10.77%), methanol (- 6.76%) and dimethyl ether (- 1.72%). Both rose or fell by 0.51% this week.

Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that: Recently, the local refining manufacturers have shipped well and the price has increased. At present, the downstream has purchased successively, and the inventory in the local refining market is low. It is expected that the petroleum coke price may continue to rise in the near future.