In 2021, the domestic PA66 market increased greatly. The data in the bulk data list of business society showed that most plastic products developed well this year, and even the price range of PA66 frequently exceeded the 40000 yuan mark. As of December 31, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 36500 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.15% over the price level at the beginning of the year. This year, the world is still affected by health events and the systematic transportation capacity is insufficient, while domestic adiponitrile production lines have not been delivered, and the pattern of high dependence on import of PA66 raw materials has not been improved. The high price of upstream raw materials is superimposed on the macroeconomic situation, which is biased towards inflation. Behind the sharp rise in PA66 spot price, we can’t help feeling the pressure from many aspects.

quotations analysis

After the market situation last year, PA66 felt the boost from the raw material end at the beginning of 2021. The adipic acid market ended in January, and the downward trend picked up. Most dealers reported tentative high prices, and generally rose in East and South China. Combined with the replenishment behavior in the downstream before the festival, the pressure at the supply end is generally controllable. In February, uncontrollable overseas factors such as the low temperature disaster in the United States continued to affect, and many enterprises such as crude oil and chemical industry stopped production, and the devices were frequently overhauled. Among them, NVIDIA, an international manufacturer of PA66 and its industrial chain related products, has two adiponitrile and two hexanediamine plants in Texas, USA, which are seriously affected by the cold disaster. There is also the oshengde plant in Alabama, and its adiponitrile and hexanediamine plants have also declared force majeure. According to industry estimates, the above plants alone account for 65% and 50% of the global production capacity of adiponitrile and hexanediamine. The production capacity loss caused by this disastrous weather has made the global supply of PA66 raw materials “frost and snow” into a very severe situation, and also laid the main tone of PA66 market in 2021. In the first quarter, PA66 enterprises and businesses frequently sent price increase letters, the production unit was under low load, and the restart time was uncertain. In terms of supply of PA66, the shipment is insufficient. The production of domestic polymerization plants is mainly used to meet contract orders. It is almost difficult to find any goods outside the main customers, and the domestic spot price is rising.

In the early part of the second quarter, the market has soared, and the price of adipic acid in the upstream fell back from the high level and fluctuated downward after experiencing the top building market. At the same time, adipic acid has gradually entered the off-season, the delivery speed has decreased significantly, the inventory pressure of enterprises has increased, and it is inevitable for enterprises to reduce prices and destock. Under the influence of increased supply pressure and relatively weak demand, prices lost support and gradually fell. Although the heat of upstream raw materials has cooled, the support for PA66 cost has been weakened. However, the decline of PA66 market in the second quarter is also one of the main factors that drag down the market. Due to the continuous high cost level, the overall operating rate of domestic PA66 industry has stabilized to about half. Although the enterprise has no pressure on inventory, its profit margin is limited, and its production and shipment mainly meet the early orders. The transfer of cost pressure to the downstream makes end users complain incessantly, and the purchase strategy is more cautious. In terms of trading, the market mostly takes goods with small orders, and the reduction of trading power has caused price fluctuations in the market to a certain extent.

In the third quarter, it undertook the high callback market in the second quarter. Due to the sharp rise in the price of far-end raw material pure benzene, the price of adipic acid stopped falling and rising in early July. When the adipic acid market was stable, adiponitrile started again in late August. Due to the high degree of dependence on imports, large international manufacturers claimed to lose production capacity due to force majeure in the medium and long term. The recent shortage pattern of adiponitrile was prominent and the price rose. However, in the third quarter, PA66 market was indifferent to the upstream support feedback, and the market basically maintained the medium and long-term pattern of weak supply and demand, with obvious market characteristics in the off-season. In the whole third quarter, the overall load level of PA66 enterprises in China was not high, some units resumed work, and the supply picked up. In terms of demand, the terminal enterprises follow up slowly, the on-site trading orders are small, the market momentum is insufficient, and the buyers have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. Merchants tentatively hold firm in their offer, and there is profit making shipment in the actual order. Recently, the market momentum has not improved, and the light state continues. It was not until the traditional peak season of “golden nine and silver ten” that PA66 spot was getting better and better. There were few arrivals at major ports, and the source of imported goods could not fill the gap of domestic demand. The demand of terminal enterprises is still sluggish, and the follow-up of goods preparation is slow. However, in the face of the reduction of on-site supply and offer, the seller’s leading role in the market is enhanced.

The performance of the “silver ten” in the second half of the traditional peak season is relatively less brilliant. The same raw material prices run at a high level and the same cost side support is strong. However, the operating rate of the industry continues to be affected by the shortage of adiponitrile. In addition, the traditional peak season is gradually weak, the demand is gradually weakened, the on-site supply price is high, the practitioners have heavy resistance, the purchase operation is biased to just need to maintain production, and the weak market of supply and demand continues to spread. The seller’s mentality is loose and the offer is gradually reduced.

Future forecast

According to the bulk data list of business society, the low point of PA66 in 2021 appeared at 29400 yuan / ton in the new year, while the high point appeared at 42900 yuan / ton in early April. This year, the price of PA66 once again hit the price mark of 40 thousand tons, which reminds people of the hot market of PA66 a few years ago. This moment of the same price range is not exactly the same as that moment. At that time, terminal enterprises bloomed everywhere and the industry developed rapidly. Now it is the year after the downstream departure, and the dilemma of high dependence on imports of adiponitrile is becoming more and more prominent. The weak market of supply and demand in 2021 is largely due to the insufficient supply of adiponitrile, and the world has been suffering for a long time. At present, many domestic adiponitrile production lines are under construction. It is reported that two production lines are expected to be completed and shipped successively in the next two years. Upstream and downstream operators of the domestic PA66 industrial chain are looking forward to a PA66 industry with more stable supply and demand and healthier market.