Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business society, the copper price first rose and then fell in February. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 70516.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose slightly to 71133.33 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 0.87% and a year-on-year increase of 1.46%.

According to the current chart of business society, most copper spot prices are higher than futures prices. Near the end of the month, copper futures prices are higher than spot prices. The main contract is the expected price in two months, indicating that everyone is optimistic about the future market of copper prices.

According to LME inventory, there is little difference between the current copper inventory and the copper level of last year.

In terms of supply and demand: there were few maintenance plans for smelters in the first quarter, and the fear that the northern smelter would be affected by the Winter Olympics in the early stage did not materialize, allowing the smelter to maintain a high output. In January, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 63.42%, a month on month decrease of 16 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 11.4 percentage points. In January, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 56.25%, a month on month decrease of 15.65 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10.79 percentage points. In February, the supply was tight and the inventory was low. With the resumption of work after the festival, the demand increased. At the end of the month, the situation in Russia and Ukraine affected market sentiment and the operation of copper prices.

Based on the above situation, the tense relationship between Russia and Ukraine has led to market hedging. The pace of work resumption in the downstream after the domestic Festival is slow, and the demand for replenishment in the downstream is still poor. Domestic short-term demand is still weak, but as the weather gets warmer and warmer, demand recovers, superimposing low inventories. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level.