Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market generally rose and fell back in February, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of February 28, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 14100 yuan / ton, up or down – 3.42% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, Shandong styrene market fluctuated and fell this month. The cost side rose and fell, and the spot fell. Crude oil rose sharply at the end of the month, the price of pure benzene followed the rise, and the cost support of styrene recovered. The downstream resumption of work is slow, mainly digesting contracts, insufficient spot demand, the market spot trading is still depressed, the confrontation between supply and demand is game, and the market expectation is still volatile in the short term.

The price of acrylonitrile was sorted out and operated this month. In the early stage, the shipment of newly put into operation equipment impacted the market, and the operating rate of the industry was also on the high side. Although some enterprises had maintenance plans at the end of the month, there were many sources of goods in the field, the merchant inventory was high, and the supply side was bad on the spot market. In terms of downstream demand, textile enterprises resumed work slowly in February, and concentrated after the Lantern Festival to stop the decline. At the end of the month, the mentality of operators is too much, but the high construction of market inventory may cause considerable resistance to the recovery of acrylonitrile.

The domestic butadiene market continued to rise this month. During the month, two plant failures of Korean enterprises triggered a sharp rise in the domestic butadiene market price. At the same time, the external market and major domestic production enterprises continued to push up, and the price of butadiene rose again and again. Affected by the policy, some downstream industries started poorly, the demand recovery was less than expected, and the market transaction was not smooth. However, with the end of the Winter Olympics and the commencement of downstream construction, the butadiene market is expected to rise again. However, the rapid rise of the market led to cautious downstream procurement, and some high price offers still need to be followed up. Butadiene analysts of business society predict that the domestic butadiene market will be dominated by high-level consolidation in the short term.

In February, the overall upstream market of ABS was mixed, and the cost side support was general. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises is high, the overall supply is high and the prognosis is abundant. The ABS market was affected by the inventory pressure of enterprises and downstream throughout the month, and the rise of spot prices was blocked after the return of the Spring Festival. In addition, after the price reduction is full, the business is biased to resume the operation, and the demand of the terminal is increased. At the end of the month, the load of downstream enterprises resumed one after another, the trading volume was relatively large, and some offers were boosted and rose slightly.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fluctuated and fell in February, and the three upstream material trends rose and fell respectively, which generally supports the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot prices are mainly affected by the high load and abundant supply of the industry. After the festival, the demand follow-up of terminal enterprises was slow, and the trading recovered at the end of the month, but the on-site supply is still large. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS spot market may be mainly sorted and operated.