1、 Price data

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fell this week. On October 16, the average price of Shandong market was 4039.00 yuan/ton, 1.52% lower than the price of 4101.50 yuan/ton on October 10.

On October 16, the petroleum coke commodity index was 314.15, unchanged from yesterday, 23.13% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 369.65% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the refinery’s petroleum coke shipments were average, the downstream demand was limited, and the price of petroleum coke fell.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price rose by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side was difficult to ease. The World Bank and IMF warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing, In addition, the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, and crude oil prices fell for three consecutive days after the holiday. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose slightly this week; The price of metal silicon market rose; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated. As of October 16, the price was 18726.67 yuan/ton; Downstream carbon enterprises have a large number of goods in stock before the festival, which is still dominated by de stocking.

The oil coke analyst of the business agency believes that: this week, the international crude oil shocks and declines, and the cost support of oil coke is limited; Downstream carbon enterprises have a large number of goods in stock before the festival, which is still dominated by de stocking. The refinery shipments are under pressure. Downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and the downstream has a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will continue to decline in the near future.