According to the price monitoring of the business community, in October 2022, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to show an upward trend, and the prices continued to rise. On October 26, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 551000 yuan/ton, which was 9.94% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average domestic mixed price of industrial carbon on October 1 was 501200 yuan/ton). On October 26, the domestic mixed average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 573000 yuan/ton, which was 10.7% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month (October 1: the domestic mixed average price of carbon was 517600 yuan/ton).

Market supply

By observing market changes, lithium carbonate prices continued to rise after the National Day holiday. During the holiday, the factory production was normal, and the lithium carbonate shipment was relatively stable. However, the lithium carbonate output of large factories was dominated by long delivery orders, and there were relatively few lithium carbonate orders in the market. In late October, lithium carbonate enterprises were basically in a normal state of operation, but the tight market supply situation has not been eased. However, due to the impact of epidemic control in some regions, logistics and transportation problems have greatly affected the shipment of lithium carbonate, leading to the rising price of lithium carbonate.

The most striking thing about upstream raw materials is that the auction price is known as the “lithium price vane” “Pilbara spodumene concentrate was auctioned. On October 24, Pilbara Minerals conducted a new round of lithium concentrate auction, and the bidding price was about 7255 US dollars/ton, up by 155 US dollars/ton, or 2.2%, compared with the transaction price of Pilbara on October 18, 2022. The amount of ore in this auction was 5000 tons, and the concentrate grade was 5.5%. The cost price of 1 ton of LCE was about 550000 yuan/ton. It is expected that this batch of ore will be delivered in the middle of November. Considering the logistics cycle It will enter the market in January to February.

Demand side

With the end of the holiday, the downstream inventory consumption and normal purchase demand remained unchanged, while the operating rate of the terminal market increased and the market purchase demand continued to increase. With the continuation of the “golden nine and silver ten”, new energy vehicles entered the traditional sales peak season, and the production of energy vehicles continued to increase, so the demand for battery raw materials rose, and the price rose again and again. In September 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to maintain a rapid growth, reaching 755000 vehicles and 708000 vehicles respectively, with a month on month growth of 9.3% and 6.2%.

Later this year, the new energy subsidy will completely decline, and some car enterprises will enter the demand for stock in advance, and the demand for energy batteries will increase, so the lithium battery manufacturers’ demand for raw materials will also increase significantly. Downstream production increase has driven the price increase in sentiment. The purchasing sentiment has not decreased, and the transaction price continues to rise.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream market rose. Due to the high price of spodumene in the upstream, the cost support is still strong. The lithium hydroxide market is strongly supported by the high price of lithium carbonate. However, domestic orders for lithium hydroxide exports remain hot, domestic market spot resources are limited, downstream high nickel ternary demand is steadily rising, procurement enthusiasm is high, and enterprise quotations in the lithium hydroxide market continue to rise.

The price of downstream lithium iron phosphate rose first and then stabilized. The rise in the price of phosphorus and iron sources before the holiday supported the price of iron phosphate. The price of lithium salt continued to rise due to the tight supply of downstream goods. The raw materials drove the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate to rise, driving the price up. Subsequently, the price of lithium iron phosphate was temporarily stable, and the tight balance was maintained under the continuous increase of lithium iron phosphate.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business community, the spot price quotation of the lithium carbonate market is still showing an upward trend. With the arrival of winter in the fourth quarter, Qinghai and other regions will be affected by low temperature, and the output may decline slightly. However, the downstream year-end stock mentality continues, and the market demand will remain high. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain high and volatile in the short term.