Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene declined in November. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8300 yuan/ton, down 3.49% from 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, up 13.70% year on year.

In November, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the 600,000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was operating stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong was operating at full load, the unit of Qilu Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Urumqi Petrochemical was operating at about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The commencement of overseas units was normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene declined. In November, the international crude oil price fell sharply, and the PX external market price fell. As of the 29th, the closing price was 909-911 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 927-929 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is sufficient, and the domestic market for paraxylene has declined.

In November, the international crude oil price fell sharply, by 9.63%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.20 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $84.25 per barrel. The Federal Reserve hinted that the interest rate increase is far from over and is not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil fell sharply, and the price of paraxylene fell due to the cost.

In November, the domestic PTA spot market declined. As of the end of the month, the average price in the East China market was 5511 yuan/ton, down 3.09% from the beginning of the month. With the improvement of processing costs, the production intention of PTA plants has risen, and most domestic devices have completed annual maintenance. At present, the operating rate of the industry remains above 74%. In addition, PTA’s new capacity is about to be tested, and the accumulated warehouse is expected to rise. The order of textile terminal enterprises is sluggish, and the drag on the demand side may be more obvious. After the end of the traditional peak season of “Jin Jiu Yin Shi”, the downstream polyester plants are more willing to ease the inventory pressure through the way of profit giving promotion and price for volume. However, because the terminal textile enterprises are not willing to take the goods and mainly purchase for rigid demand, the effect of inventory reduction is not good, the polyester plants are forced to choose to reduce the load, the downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is declining.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the business agency, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game against the demand side. Downstream demand is poor, the improvement of terminal orders is limited, polyester inventory pressure rises, profits are compressed again, and PTA prices remain low. In general, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will decline slightly in the later period.