According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price index of the rare earth market fell sharply in April, and the trend of the domestic rare earth market declined. On April 27, the commodity price index BPI was 967 points, down 24 points from the first day, down 28.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1343 points (2021-10-19), and up 46.52% from the lowest point of 660 points on February 3, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metallic praseodymium neodymium in China have significantly decreased. As of the 28th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 540000 yuan/ton, and the price decreased by 13.94% in April; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 435000 yuan/ton, which decreased by 16.75% in April; The price of neodymium oxide was 455000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 18.02% in April; The price of neodymium metal was 600000 yuan/ton, and the price decreased by 16.08% in April; The price of metal praseodymium was 610000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12.23% in April; The price of praseodymium oxide was 455000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 14.95% in April.

In early April, the listed prices of rare earths in the northern region remained generally stable, with prices higher than market expectations. The light rare earths market stabilized after the decline, but the continued lack of downstream demand after the Qingming Festival intensified the wait-and-see sentiment of buyers, and the light rare earths market continued to decline. The order situation in the domestic terminal market has not significantly improved. Overall, the order volume has decreased, and large manufacturers have a clear competitive advantage. Some small and medium-sized neodymium iron boron enterprises are facing operational difficulties. In addition, the operation of enterprises with export orders is not ideal, and due to the drastic fluctuations in raw material prices, the purchasing party has a serious resistance mentality. The order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish, with magnetic material factories mainly consuming existing inventory. The actual transaction price of rare earths continues to shift downward, putting pressure on the rare earth market. The pessimism in the rare earth market is heavy. Most of the operators continue to be bearish on the short-term price of rare earth. Under the influence of multiple factors, the price of the domestic rare earth market continues to fall.

The price of heavy rare earth dysprosium series in China has decreased, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 1.905 million yuan/ton as of the 28th, a decrease of 8.19% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy was 1.875 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.09% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.63 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.07% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of terbium series in China has mainly declined, with terbium oxide prices of 8.4 million yuan/ton and metal terbium prices of 10.75 million yuan/ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth has declined, the production enterprises in Sichuan and other places have started to rise, the downstream procurement is very cold, and the oversupply has caused the market price to fall. In addition, there is an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, and the supply of rare earth is sufficient. The recovery of the rare earth terminal industry is slow, and transactions are scarce. The rare earth market prices continue to decline.

According to statistics, although the demand for new energy vehicles is moderate, and the production and sales increased in March, the downstream permanent magnet procurement is very scarce, and the price of rare earth market is still not optimistic.

At the end of March, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice on the total control indicators for the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023: the first batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2023 was 120000 tons, an increase of approximately 19% compared to last year, including 109057 tons of rock and mineral rare earth, an increase of 22% compared to last year; Ionic rare earth ore is 10943 tons, a decrease of 5% compared to last year. The mining output of rare earth has risen sharply, which has hit market confidence in some ways, and the price of rare earth has continued to decline.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, downstream rare earth merchants have been purchasing weakly, and demand is unlikely to improve. In addition, upstream supply is sufficient, the supply-demand contradiction is sharp, and the transaction situation is not good. In addition, the second quarter is gradually in the off-season of the rare earth industry, and the decline of the light rare earth market is difficult to change in the short term.