1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of August 4th, the spot nickel quotation was 174500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.98%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 6 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decline in recent times.

On a macro level, the US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 46.4% in July, slightly lower than expected and shrinking for nine consecutive months; Manufacturing activity in the eurozone experienced its fastest contraction since May 2020 in July. The recent PMI data released in Asia shows that manufacturing activity in China, Japan, and South Korea remains weak, suppressing the outlook for metal demand. Recently, there have been frequent positive policies in China, but the bullish sentiment has basically materialized, making it difficult for market confidence to further rebound before more positive policies are announced.

In terms of supply: Russian nickel long-term cooperation orders flow in, and customs clearance conditions are not limited by whether imports are profitable, supplementing domestic supply. There is an oversupply of domestic resources, and various factories and warehouses have accumulated some. The nickel production in Jinchuan has decreased, and the Xinjiang smelter has resumed production; Small and medium-sized smelters such as Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have all maintained stable production; The production of two large nickel enterprises in Zhejiang and Hubei continues to climb; The new production line in Guangxi last month continued to ramp up production this month. In August 2023, refining nickel enterprises in various regions will continue to increase production. After the resumption of production at Xinjiang nickel factories, it is expected to recover to over 1000 tons per month. It is expected that domestic refined nickel production will continue to increase by 5.93% to 22330 tons in August. In addition, the electric nickel project jointly constructed by Chinese enterprises in Indonesia is expected to be officially put into operation in August, with a full production capacity of up to 50000 tons per year.

Demand: downstream stainless steel. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel fell 2.3% on a weekly basis to 1.003 million tons, dominated by the digestion of 400 series resources. Downstream demand is still dominated by Major appliance, and according to Industry Online, air conditioning will still maintain a certain growth rate in September. New energy vehicles. According to the Passenger Transport Association, the retail volume of Alternative fuel vehicle in China’s market in July was 647000, up 33% year on year and down 3% month on month; The transaction of Nickel(II) sulfate in the market was weak, the price continued to fall, and the production of ternary precursors weakened month on month.

In summary, the domestic supply of pure nickel is relatively loose, and the supply of imported nickel is gradually increasing, limiting the shipment volume of traders. Demand differentiation, supported by low inventory, is expected to be dominated by short-term wide fluctuations in nickel.