According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, this week (7.29-8.4), cost driving was dominant, and the overall price of raw silk increased. Some enterprises held prices and were not in a hurry to sell. In the face of rigid demand, the enthusiasm of weaving enterprises to purchase goods has increased recently, and the price of dried cocoons has also turned red. As of August 4th, the average price of raw silk in the domestic market was 475000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% compared to last week and 9.26% year-on-year; The average market price of dried cocoons is 154000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.22% compared to last week and 8.45% year-on-year.

On the spot market, the trade circulation atmosphere is relatively warm, and the purchase and sales of cocoon silk continue to maintain a fierce atmosphere. Some silk reeling enterprises are accelerating their stocking speed, and weaving enterprises are also accelerating their stocking progress. The number of high-quality raw silk transactions continues to increase compared to last week. In the atmosphere of rising cocoon and silk prices, the cumulative increase in silk wool prices from June to July was basically around 10000 to 20000 yuan. However, it is worth noting that as the basic raw material for silk wool quilts, the price of tussah silk wool has not changed much in the past two months. The price of dried cocoons continues to rise, including regions such as Sichuan, Jiangsu, Guangxi, and Yunnan, where spot purchases are active.

On the summer cocoon market, the fresh cocoon market volume in major production areas such as Guangxi continues to decline, continuing the summer cocoon style. Summer cocoons in Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi and other regions continue to be listed one after another, creating a strong atmosphere of panic buying. Mulberry orchards in more areas of the southern main production areas are entering a recuperation period, preparing for the autumn cocoon market in late August. With the continuous increase in silk prices, it is expected to push up the price of autumn cocoons for mass release in August.

Amidst the rapid price increase in the front-end, weaving companies have raised some product prices this week. Although the impact of the increase in raw silk raw materials is evident, some companies can only place orders at the original price, and the overall order situation is still not ideal. It is understood that there are also some companies that sell well in the wholesale process of silk wool products, such as real silk home textile companies, and real silk underwear companies, which have slightly adjusted the prices of their products. However, similar to the recent trend of some commodities, if the overall demand does not increase and profits are compressed, will the power of replenishing raw materials in the future decrease? It needs to be closely observed.

According to convention, the fabric clothing “Golden Nine Silver Ten” is expected to start around mid August, and the off-season in July is approaching its end. However, as August enters this week, in addition to the highlights of the situation, weaving enterprises still report that the order arrival situation is not satisfactory. In the commodity market, overall commodities rebounded in July, rising for two consecutive months, and most of them have corrected and consolidated today. The price increase during the traditional off-season still requires order fulfillment during the market transition from off-season to peak season from August to October.

Comparing the price data since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the price of raw silk has reached a new high since 2020. The continuous supply situation of cocoons since last year, combined with El Ni ñ o weather, has resulted in strong cost support for cocoon silk varieties. However, at present, the demand for terminal weaving is relatively weak, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the market is still accumulating. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the absence of obvious new news and the interweaving of long and short positions, raw silk prices may exhibit a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.