Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been fluctuating, with spot prices fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 21, the average price of ABS sample products was 10675 yuan/ton, a+1.18% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of over 93%, which has increased compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is abundant. Inventory continues to rise, overall at over 170000 tons. Supply side support for spot market weakened.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been average recently. The raw material acrylonitrile market continued to decline slightly. Although supported by higher upstream propylene and increased terminal operating rates, the efforts are limited. The increase in the operation of acrylonitrile units has significantly affected the compression of acrylonitrile, leading to a decrease in prices.

Last week, the price of butadiene remained stagnant. The high crude oil prices loosened during the week, weakening support for sellers’ mentality. In addition, due to the increase in spot prices in the early stage, the acceptance of high priced goods by terminals has decreased. In the second half of the week, trading has been cold, and the market is under pressure. The domestic butadiene market may enter a consolidation market.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the recent decline in styrene market prices has led to a pullback. Recently, downstream demand has continued to be weak in the early stage, and the cost of pure benzene remains strong. However, the loosening of crude oil prices weakens the confidence of operators, and it is expected that the short-term styrene spot market may weaken due to the long short tug of war.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers decreased, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in poor overall demand.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have fluctuated, weakening support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has increased compared to the previous period, and market inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue to narrow range consolidation.