According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in October 2023, the domestic lead ingot market was weak and volatile, with an average price of 16500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 0.91%.

On October 30th, the lead commodity index was 99.48, an increase of 0.22 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.77% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 33.30% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

On October 30th, the base metal index was 1192 points, an increase of 12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 26.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 85.67% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile, with a significant increase starting from July. Judging from the weekly trend, there are more losses and less gains.

In October 2023, the lead ingot market continued to decline in the first half of the month, while the trend in the second half was volatile. The futures market performed poorly after the holiday, with lead inventory rising to over 90000 tons, reaching a new high since June 2021. The spot market supply increased after the holiday, and the market mentality was weak. Under high inventory pressure, the lead ingot market was under pressure and downward trend. After entering the second half of the month, the market saw a slight rebound driven by the positive macro outlook, but was once again under pressure and downward.

From the perspective of supply and demand, some enterprises in the main production areas have maintenance plans after the holiday, while most of the enterprises that underwent preliminary maintenance have recently resumed normal production. The overall operating rate of primary lead has slightly increased compared to last month, and it is expected that the production will slightly increase within the month, indicating sufficient market supply. In terms of demand, as the weather turns colder, the traditional seasonal peak season in China has basically come to an end. However, this year’s overall peak season performance is average, and the overall performance is not strong during the peak season. Due to poor sales performance during the peak season, the inventory of battery companies in the factory is still high, and companies are mainly actively destocking. Overall, the lead ingot market is gradually entering the off-season, and there may be room for a downward trend in lead prices under high inventory pressure.

Related data:

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September 2023, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.85 million and 2.858 million units, respectively, with an average increase of 10.7% month on month and 6.6% and 9.5% year-on-year, respectively. Both production and sales reached historical highs during the same period. From January to September 2023, China’s automobile production and sales reached a total of 21.075 million and 21.069 million units, with year-on-year growth of 7.3% and 8.2%, respectively.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in September 2023 reached 687000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%. From January to September 2023, China’s lead production reached 5.761 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in August 2023, global refined lead production was 1.1787 million tons, consumption was 1.1849 million tons, and supply shortage was 6100 tons. From January to August 2023, the global refined lead production was 9.7148 million tons, with a consumption of 9.7386 million tons and a supply shortage of 23800 tons. In August 2023, the global lead ore production was 354400 tons. From January to August 2023, the global lead ore production was 3.2548 million tons