1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in November. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2460 yuan/ton. On November 8th, the average market price was around 2080 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 15.45%. On November 7th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 109.74, a decrease of 6.67 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 73.78% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

In terms of the market, according to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has declined this month. The mainstream price in the domestic market is around 1900-2400 yuan/ton, and the enterprise equipment is relatively stable with no significant fluctuations at the moment. Enterprise shipments are average and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation.

Domestic mainstream market quotation situation:

In terms of supply: The market trading atmosphere is average, with data showing that the overall operating rate of soda ash is currently around 87%. Data shows that the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is currently around 510000 tons, an increase of 13.07%. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased, but the alkali plants are still in a state of accumulation. In addition, data shows that in October, with the completion of new production and centralized maintenance, the monthly production of soda ash exceeded 3 million tons, setting a new monthly high in recent years. This shows that the production of soda ash is still at a high level.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of glass is declining. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 23.09 yuan/square meter. On November 8th, the average price was 22.68 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.78%. The performance of glass is average. Although the raw material inventory of downstream glass factories is not high, the market sentiment is relatively cautious due to the expectation of upstream inventory accumulation, and there has been no large-scale replenishment behavior. Instead, procurement is mainly based on demand.

Analysts from the Business Society believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, the price of soda ash is weak and operating. Individual enterprises undergo maintenance, but the overall supply fluctuation is not significant. The overall trading atmosphere is average, and the downstream of soda ash is replenished according to demand. Market participants have a strong bearish attitude towards the future market, and the supply-demand game is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation of soda ash prices in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.