Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends
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This week, the price of 441 # metal silicon remained stable. As of November 20th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 15180 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price. Overall, there is a differentiation in supply between the north and south. In terms of futures, the overall trend was initially suppressed and then increased, with a slight increase throughout the week and a relatively stable performance. SI2401 rose or fell 1.24% throughout the week, closing at 14265 yuan/ton.
The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 20th are as follows:
The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15000-15100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15050 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 15600-15800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15700 yuan/ton.
Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal
On the supply side:
As of November 16th, there were 413 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall start-up rate of 56.65%, a decrease of 2 furnaces compared to the previous month. 78 furnaces were opened in Yunnan, 67 furnaces were opened in Sichuan, and 152 furnaces were opened in Xinjiang. Due to the arrival of the dry season in the southwest region, the cost of silicon factories has increased, and the number of furnace shutdowns has increased, resulting in relatively strong quotations from silicon factories; There are still small profits in the northwest region, with an increase in the number of furnaces and sufficient supply of warehouse receipts for shipment. However, downstream purchasing sentiment is not high and prices are weak.
In terms of inventory:
As of November 17th, the total social inventory was 368000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons compared to last week. Among them, Huangpu Port has 32000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared to last week; Kunming has 49000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons compared to last week, and the delivery warehouse in Kunming has 79000 tons, which remains unchanged compared to last week; Tianjin Port has 39000 tons, with an increase of 2000 tons compared to the surrounding area; Xinjiang delivery warehouse is 0.4, with a decrease of 10000 tons compared to the previous month.
In terms of demand:
This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market further declined, and the mainstream range for single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar grade is currently maintained at 6.5-7.5 yuan/ton. Polycrystalline silicon remains the main demand force for metallic silicon, with 99 silicon powder signing orders one after another, but there is a strong pressure on prices.
The organic silicon DMC market is operating steadily, with a market price reference of 14540 yuan/ton. The overall market is in a period of consolidation and recovery, and the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC remains average. The operating load of individual factories has decreased, and the demand for metallic silicon is also average.
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The price of aluminum alloy has fluctuated and adjusted, with a slight correction in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 19400 yuan/ton. The factory has just released orders, and industrial silicon procurement has been actively inquiring and placing orders recently.
Future Market Forecast
Fundamentally, the metal silicon market is still in a situation of oversupply, with production gradually decreasing in the south. However, the increase in production by manufacturers in the northwest has resulted in a lower than expected decrease in the supply of metal silicon. This week, social inventory has once again accumulated, putting pressure on the supply side of metal silicon. From a cost perspective, with the opening of power rationing in Southwest China, the profit from metal silicon production has decreased, and cost support has gradually strengthened. With the arrival of the dry season, metal silicon will gradually fluctuate and operate.
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