This week, the price of 441 # metallic silicon continued to remain stable. As of November 27th, the average price of metallic silicon in the domestic market was 15180 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price. The price of 441 # metallic silicon has remained stable for half a month, and both supply and demand sides have shown caution in their operations. Southwest silicon factories are mainly pushing up prices, while Northwest is under pressure to ship, with short-term upstream and downstream games being the main focus. In terms of futures, the overall trend is rising first and then falling, with a slight decline throughout the week. SI2401 rose or fell 0.46% throughout the week, closing at 14200 yuan/ton.

 

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On the 27th, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions is as follows:

 

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15000-15100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15050 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15600-15800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15700 yuan/ton.

 

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of November 23rd, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 407, with an overall start-up rate of 55.83%, a decrease of 6 furnaces compared to the previous month. The number of silicon metal furnaces continues to decrease, continuing to be less in the south and more in the north. The cost of electricity prices in the southwest has increased, and the profits of silicon plants have been compressed. It is expected that further production reduction will occur next week; A small increase in the opening of furnaces in the northwest partially compensates for the decrease in supply in the southwest, while the overall supply slightly decreases.

 

In terms of inventory:

As of November 24th, the total social inventory was 372000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons compared to last week. Among them, Huangpu Port has 35000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons compared to last week; Kunming delivered 50000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons compared to last week, and the delivery warehouse in Kunming delivered 79000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to last week; Tianjin Port had 39000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Tianjin delivery warehouse had 34000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week; The delivery warehouse in Xinjiang is 0.3, with a decrease of 0.1 thousand tons compared to the previous week.

 

In terms of demand:

 

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market further declined, and the mainstream quotation for single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy is 68333.33 yuan/ton. In October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic equipment fell, and it is expected that polycrystalline silicon will continue to remain weak in the short term.

 

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The organic silicon DMC market is experiencing a weak decline, with a market price reference of 14500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is limited, and the factory’s order volume is average. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on site, and some downstream factories have started operating at a reduced rate, resulting in weak demand for metallic silicon.

 

The price of aluminum alloy has fluctuated and adjusted, with a slight correction in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 19400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remains weak due to difficulties in purchasing scrap aluminum and production losses.

 

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the willingness of Southwest Silicon Plant to shut down has increased, and the quotation is relatively firm. However, a small number of Northwest manufacturers have increased their opening of furnaces, coupled with the arrival of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, resulting in significant supply pressure. Downstream product prices on the demand side have weakened, and there is no expectation of improvement in demand. Metal silicon lacks short-term upward momentum. But with further increases in electricity prices during the dry season, cost support is gradually increasing, and the space for silicon prices to fall is also limited. It is expected that metal silicon will maintain a volatile operation in the short term.

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