According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 4th to 11th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6787 yuan/ton to 6800 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.18%, a month on month decrease of 0.37%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.18%. The weather conditions in some areas have caused transportation difficulties, resulting in an increase in freight costs and a significant increase in prices for enterprise orders. However, the actual shipment situation of the factory is relatively weak, with few new orders, and actual transactions are still mainly based on low-end operations.

In terms of cost, as we enter December, the corn market in the Northeast production area continues to increase. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the arrival of corn from deep processing enterprises does not decrease. After the enterprise’s inventory is replenished, they continue to purchase at a lower price. The demand for the breeding industry is still sluggish, coupled with the continuous arrival of low-priced imported corn and its substitutes in the port. The stage of strong supply and weak demand pressure in the domestic corn market is highlighted, and corn prices continue to decline weakly under pressure. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 37.97% operating in East China and 95.13% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 18.65%; In the short term, domestic ethanol production in Northeast China is stable or slightly increasing, and small factories have plans to start production. The operating rate in East China fluctuates at a low level. The operating rate of coal to ethanol remains stable in the short term. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. There is a possibility of restoring the ethyl acetate factory. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, there is a bearish cost situation and significant regional differences in supply and demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience weak consolidation in the short term.