According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic ethanol market was operating weakly in December. From December 1st to 26th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers first rose from 6787 yuan/ton and then fell to 6775 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.18% during the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 0.37%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.52%.

At the beginning of the month, some regions experienced an increase in freight rates, which led to a slight increase in delivery prices. However, the factory’s shipment situation was weak, with actual orders mainly operating at the low-end. The domestic ethanol market is operating weakly. In the first half of the month, the weather conditions in some areas caused transportation difficulties, resulting in an increase in freight costs and a significant increase in enterprise orders and prices. However, the actual shipment situation of the factory is relatively weak, with few new orders, and actual transactions are still mainly based on low-end operations. In mid month, snowfall affects delivery time, prices remain stable, orders are shipped, and transportation vehicles are difficult to find. The overall weakness of the domestic ethanol market is mainly due to consolidation. As the end of the month approaches, the domestic ethanol market is currently weak in supply and demand, with some regions experiencing a recovery in equipment and average demand.

In terms of cost, as we enter December, the corn market in the Northeast production area continues to increase. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the arrival of corn from deep processing enterprises does not decrease. After the enterprise’s inventory is replenished, they continue to purchase at a lower price. The demand for the breeding industry is still sluggish, coupled with the continuous arrival of low-priced imported corn and its substitutes in the port. The stage of strong supply and weak demand pressure in the domestic corn market is highlighted, and corn prices continue to decline weakly under pressure. In mid December, the market volume of corn in the production area continued to increase. In addition, the new season corn was once again abundant, and the domestic corn market supply became more relaxed. Ports and deep processing corn inventories were relatively sufficient. Downstream trading entities had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and feed demand continued to be weak. Under the strong market supply and weak demand pressure, the domestic corn market prices continued to operate weakly.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 38.54% operating in East China and 91.04% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 19.65%; Short term domestic ethanol production and stable food supply in Northeast China. There is sufficient ethanol supply in the East China region. Coal based ethanol supply is stable. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in December. The ethyl acetate project in Anhui region is awaiting production. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and the transportation and delivery situation between regions in terms of supply and demand are greatly affected by weather factors. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation may be dominated by weak consolidation.