1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of April 11th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43620 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42316 yuan/ton. Since April, the lithium iron phosphate market has continued to recover, with upstream iron phosphate prices fluctuating mainly. This week, the price increased by 0.81%, with an increase of around 100 yuan/ton, providing strong support for lithium iron phosphate on the cost side.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of lithium iron phosphate has been continuously rising. Since April, the market price of lithium iron phosphate has remained high and the trend has remained strong. The cost side price of lithium iron phosphate has strong support, and there is still support for lithium carbonate. As of April 11th, the price of lithium iron phosphate has continued to rise. Currently, the upstream dual raw material prices continue to rise, and the cost side support of lithium iron phosphate is strong. In addition, downstream demand continues to decrease. The purchasing atmosphere is good, and the negotiation focus remains high. There is no pressure on inventory. Currently, downstream enterprises mainly purchase in demand, and the factory operating rate is relatively high. Small and medium-sized enterprises mainly focus on production and sales. Today, the upstream price of lithium carbonate is mainly stable and strong, and lithium salt enterprises maintain a positive selling attitude. Due to recent market demand, Prices continue to rise, and companies have a clear willingness to hoard goods. Recently, the number of orders has significantly increased.

In terms of cost: March is the traditional spring plowing season, and due to the increase in demand for phosphate fertilizer, upstream phosphate prices have remained stable and strong. Phosphoric acid, as the main phosphorus element in iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate, directly affects downstream prices at the cost end. The upstream iron ore prices have shown an upward trend, with an increase of up to 10% since early April. Under the continuous stimulation of cost pressure, the prices of lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate have passively risen. It is expected that strong support from the cost end will continue in the short term, driving up the prices of lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate.

In terms of demand: Currently, the production and sales of energy storage cells have rebounded recently, and the pressure of high inventory levels has been significantly alleviated in March. Recently, the leading lithium battery company, CATL, announced at the energy storage new product launch event that the Tianheng standard 20 foot containerized energy storage system will no longer cause a drop in the lifespan of the product’s lithium battery, achieving 15000 laboratory cycles. The large capacity of energy storage cells has sparked a large-scale boom, which will drive the continuous upgrading of the lithium battery industry to cope with more challenges.

In terms of production: According to statistics, the production of lithium iron phosphate in March was 164000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons or 32.3% compared to February. The production of iron phosphate was 121100 tons, a significant increase of 103% compared to the previous month and a significant increase of 75% compared to the same period last year. After the Qingming Festival, orders for lithium iron phosphate have significantly recovered, leading enterprises have rebounded in prices and considerable profits. Enterprises have continuously increased their production to meet the demand for downstream power vehicles. The full month production capacity in March has approached the high level of the same period last year. Currently, downstream demand is not decreasing, and upstream cost support is favorable. It is expected that production capacity will continue to increase in April.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Market and technical prediction: In the short term, the market price of lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue to rise

In the future market of lithium iron phosphate, there is a high possibility of an upward trend. Currently, spot prices continue to rise, and with the dual assistance of cost and demand, the upward trend of lithium iron phosphate is full of momentum. The commodity analysis system prediction model of Shengyishe shows that since March 1, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. At that time, the price of lithium iron phosphate in Shengyishe was in a continuous upward trend, and the daily moving average on April 6, 2024 has once again crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, it can be seen that the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. According to calculations on April 11, 2024, the possibility of market changes in the next 7 days is not significant. Therefore, it is expected that the price of lithium iron phosphate will continue to rise in the short.

In summary, as of April, the peak season of production and sales continues, and battery cell companies are accelerating their delivery speed, increasing their orders. New energy vehicle models continue to be launched, and iron lithium companies have full confidence in the future market. The demand for the power market is quite obvious, and the spring market is also gradually recovering. It is expected that the demand for lithium iron phosphate market will further increase.