Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China continued to rise in April. On April 17th, the sulfur price was 1240.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.53% compared to the sulfur price of 1073.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Since April, the sulfur market has continued to rise strongly. Before the Qingming Festival, downstream companies were actively stocking up before the festival, with active on-site trading, smooth enterprise shipments, and an upward trend in sulfur prices; After the holiday, refineries in Shandong have concentrated maintenance, reduced capacity utilization, low inventory levels, and tight market supply. Refinery prices have risen significantly, while downstream procurement is more active, making it difficult to find low prices on the market. In the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the focus of market transactions continues to shift upwards. As of the 17th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was around 1180-1330 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 1180-1320 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market fluctuated narrowly, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price on April 17th at 331.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% compared to the beginning of the month price of 328.75 yuan/ton. The domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly stable, with acid companies adopting a wait-and-see attitude and maintaining a delivery rhythm. Downstream demand and procurement enthusiasm are not high, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. Acid companies ship according to demand, and some adjust sulfuric acid prices slightly based on inventory conditions.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly, with an average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate at 2966.67 yuan/ton on April 17th, a decrease of 4.20% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3096.67 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the ammonium phosphate market is sluggish, downstream purchases are light, demand support is insufficient, manufacturers have limited new orders, pending orders are reduced, enterprise sales are under pressure, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price of ammonium phosphate continues to decline.

Technical analysis

Sulfur may continue to be strong and upward in the short term. Since January 28, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 23.58%.

At present, sulfur is at a high level in one year, a low level in two years, and a low level in three years. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average value of sulfur in the past year is 956.46 yuan/ton, the median value is 976.67 yuan/ton, the minimum value is 713.33 yuan/ton, and the maximum value is 1240.00 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past year) is 526.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past year) is 0.

Future Market Forecast

According to sulfur analysts from Business Society, the sulfur market currently has a lot of equipment maintenance, tight supply of goods, stable downstream demand, smooth enterprise shipments, and strong supplier benefits. It is expected that sulfur prices will continue to be strong in the short term, but in the long run, it will be difficult to find low prices downstream or there may be resistance to high priced sulfur. The sulfur market will remain stagnant and consolidated in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.