According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has been weak and declining recently (5.1-5.11). On May 11th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08% from 7680 yuan/ton on the first day.
International crude oil weak volatility, mixed xylene cost support weakened
Recently (5.1-5.11), the concentrated release of bearish news in the international crude oil market has put pressure on the risk premium of crude oil, causing weak fluctuations in international crude oil prices and weakening support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of May 10th, WTI06 contract settlement is $79.26/barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $83.88 per barrel. The significant decline in Asian mixed xylene prices has had a bearish impact on the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $951 to $952 per ton as of May 10th.
The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has significantly decreased, and the supply pressure has slightly eased
The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has significantly decreased, and the pressure on port supply has slightly eased. It is understood that as of May 9th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 55000 tons, significantly lower than the end of April.
Starting production of xylene and increasing the required support for mixed xylene recovery
Part of the preliminary maintenance equipment has gradually restarted operation, and the domestic PX production has significantly rebounded. As of May 10th, PX production has increased to around 790%. However, in the later stage, domestic PX units such as Weilian Chemical and Ningbo Daxie are planned to be shut down for maintenance. In addition, the 400000 ton unit of SK Line 2 in South Korea is planned to be repaired for one and a half months, making it difficult to significantly improve PX production in the later stage, and the support for mixed xylene is limited. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the domestic PX market. As of May 10th, the closing price in the Asian region is 987-989 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1012-1014 US dollars/ton CFR China.
The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak
The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is operating steadily, with normal shipments of ortho phthalic anhydride starting from Tongling, Anhui. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is operating steadily, while Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Recently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal. The production situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has slightly decreased, and the market of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has remained low. As a result, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased.
The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported
The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of May 10th, the operating rate of refineries nationwide has remained around 70%. There is some support for the improvement of mixed xylene, but the later improvement support is limited. The mixed blending and phthalic anhydride industries are operating at a low level, and the overall support for the demand for mixed xylene is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.
Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices
Market forecast: Business Society’s mixed xylene analyst believes that in the short term, international crude oil will experience weak consolidation, and the cost support for mixed xylene will weaken; The increase in downstream PX production has certain support for mixed xylene,But the support for later improvement is limited. The mixed blending and phthalic anhydride industries are operating at a low level, and the overall support for the demand for mixed xylene is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.
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