According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from May 13th to 17th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 11537 yuan/ton to 11262 yuan/ton, with a 2.38% decrease in price during the cycle, a 3.74% month on month decrease, and a 40.45% year-on-year increase. Some production enterprises in certain regions have increased their exports, while merchants have clear expectations for domestic production growth in the later period. The downward trend in the market has intensified the cautious attitude of downstream inquiries, resulting in a weak transaction atmosphere and further affecting the downward pressure on supplier prices.

Cost side: In terms of crude oil, international oil prices have overall declined, and Federal Reserve officials have hinted that interest rate cuts will not come soon. The market is concerned that high interest rates will continue to pressure the economy and demand, and the International Energy Agency has lowered its global demand growth forecast. As of May 16th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $83.27 per barrel.

In terms of naphtha, the market for naphtha continues to decline, and international oil prices are weak, exacerbating market bearish sentiment and weakening cost support. There has been no actual improvement in the demand for terminal ethylene cracking, and it is still in a stagnant state. As of May 17th, the benchmark price of Shangyishe Naphtha is 8054.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of butadiene is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Sinopec’s various sales companies have lowered the listed price of butadiene twice to 11400 yuan/ton. The maintenance device has been restarted, and there is a production plan for the new production capacity, resulting in an increase in output. The supply of butadiene is affected by negative factors..

On the demand side, although there are signs of a downward shift in industrial chain profits, downstream industries have not seen a significant improvement in production. Coupled with expectations for future supply growth, market fundamentals are mainly bearish, dragging the market down continuously. Negative factors affecting the demand for butadiene.

As of the closing price on May 16th, the external price of Asian butadiene remained stable: FOB South Korea reported 1375-1385 US dollars/ton; China CFR report 1385-1395 USD/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe fell: FOB Rotterdam closed at $1155-1165 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1065-1075 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, Zhejiang Petrochemical 2 # and Fujian United and other facilities have plans to restart in the next cycle. Domestic production is expected to increase, and although the profit of the industrial chain has shifted downwards, downstream industry construction has not improved significantly. Coupled with weak performance in the external market, there is little positive support in the market. Business Society Butadiene Analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market may continue to decline.