According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the average price of alumina in the market was 3983 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the average price of alumina in the market was 3500 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.81% compared to the beginning of the month.

Upstream aspect

Recently, northern mines have continued to suspend and reduce production, and there is no expectation of large-scale resumption of production, which has led to a tight supply of mines and affected the operating rate of alumina. As of the beginning of this month, the slow improvement of bauxite supply capacity and the impact of routine equipment maintenance have resulted in no further increase in alumina production capacity. At present, the insufficient supply capacity of bauxite and equipment maintenance are still the main factors restricting the increase in production of alumina enterprises in the southern region.

Affected by the news that Rio Tinto Group has announced that its Australian Yarwun smelters and Queensland Alumina Limited have experienced force majeure in their alumina shipments, with prices skyrocketing due to shortages in natural gas inventory/supply for power generation. Due to uncontrollable factors such as insufficient natural gas supply and overall shortage of overseas alumina spot, the execution of some contracts between the two alumina plants has been hindered in the short term. Domestic alumina prices are strong.

Downstream aspect

As of now, the entire domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has basically reached its peak operating level, and there is basically no growth space above. The long-term interference factors may be the phased reduction and shutdown of aluminum production capacity in Yunnan region due to the alternation of abundant and dry seasons.

The inventory of aluminum oxide in electrolytic aluminum enterprises continues to decline, especially for some individual electrolytic aluminum enterprises. Although spot orders and long orders have recovered, the inventory of aluminum oxide remains at the low level in previous years.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the supply of domestically produced ore in the upstream continues to be tight, and the force majeure factors of foreign alumina giants have affected the supply of imported alumina, all of which are the reasons for the increase in alumina prices this month. It is expected that the price of alumina will fluctuate at a high level.