According to data monitored by Business Society, the carbon black market price continued to fluctuate and decline this month, with a price drop of 500-600 yuan/ton at the end of the month compared to the beginning of the month. As of May 31, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was at 9166 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the price trend of high-temperature coal tar market has declined this month. As of the 31st, the price of coal tar was 4425 yuan/ton. Recently, the profitability of coking enterprises has been decent, and their enthusiasm for starting production has significantly increased. This has greatly boosted the production momentum of coking enterprises, leading to a significant increase in the market supply of coal tar. The downstream main product coal tar market has a long-term oversupply, and the market situation is weak and difficult to improve, which brings a strong negative atmosphere to the high-temperature coal tar raw material market. This market atmosphere has formed a strong pressure on raw material prices, and it is expected that terminal demand will be weak and difficult to improve in the short term. The overall trend of coal tar prices is weak, and the support for carbon black cost is weak.

Production situation: The supply of carbon black in the market is relatively sufficient this month, and most carbon black enterprises have maintained stable production. Some shutdown and maintenance enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the operating rate has increased.

In terms of terminals, the downstream tire industry is currently in a seasonal off-season, with weak demand in both domestic and international tire replacement markets. The export volume of foreign trade is also showing a trend of reduction, leading to serious inventory accumulation in the market. The sales performance of the downstream rubber product industry is lackluster, with a significant decrease in demand for raw materials and procurement enthusiasm. Affected by this, the shipment volume of carbon black enterprises has become sluggish, and the momentum of price increase is clearly lacking in momentum.

In terms of import and export: According to customs data, China imported 31800 tons of carbon black in April 2024, an increase of 50.79% year-on-year and 11.9% month on month; From January to April 2024, China’s cumulative imports of carbon black reached 108600 tons, an increase of 36.72% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 29000 tons. In April 2024, China’s carbon black exports were approximately 57600 tons, an increase of 15.67% year-on-year and a decrease of 31.87% month on month. From January to April 2024, China’s cumulative exports of carbon black reached 312200 tons, an increase of 62.11% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by approximately 120000 tons.

Future outlook: The market price of high-temperature coal tar is weak, and the support for the cost side of carbon black is relatively limited; At the same time, the downstream tire and rubber product industry’s shipment volume remains stable but growth is weak, leading to a weakened willingness to purchase high priced carbon black, and often holding a price pressure attitude when inquiring. At present, there is no clear positive signal on the demand side, and the carbon black market is expected to continue to maintain the current weak operating trend.