1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash first fell and then rose in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1584 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1556 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 28 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 1.77%. On November 29th, the light soda ash commodity index was 79.79, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.81% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 26.35% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall soda ash market has been weak this month. The utilization rate of on-site soda ash production capacity is relatively high, and the market supply is sufficient. Although glass prices are running strongly, the benefits for soda ash are not obvious. Downstream purchasing is limited, and market trading is still weak. The situation of on-site supply exceeding demand is obvious, and the soda ash market continues to be weak.

As of November 29, 2024, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in the East China region is around 1450-1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for light soda ash in Central China is around 1380-1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for light soda ash in North China is around 1600-1630 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of glass this month first increased and then decreased. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 15.95 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 16.20 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.57%. The glass spot market is fluctuating at a high level, and downstream market entry follows demand. The trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable, and the glass market is relatively strong and operating steadily.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of soda ash and glass commodities on November 29th was 81.77, up 1 point from yesterday, down 27.23% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and up 7.24% from the lowest point of 76.25 points on November 17, 2024. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has remained stable in the near future, while the downstream glass market price has fallen. However, there is insufficient support for soda ash, and the utilization rate of supply side soda ash production capacity has increased. Sales pressure still exists for enterprises, and the mentality of operators is wait-and-see. It is expected that the price of soda ash will run weakly in the future, depending on downstream market demand.