According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 9th to 13th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2530 yuan/ton to 2600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.77% during the period, a month on month increase of 4.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.40%. The domestic methanol market is mainly on the rise. The main regional equipment in the Middle East has changed, and the expected reduction in methanol import volume is expected. Port methanol inventory is gradually entering the channel of destocking, and the market is dominated by a bullish mentality.

As of the close on December 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2629 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2637 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2605 yuan/ton. It closed at 2610 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 9% or 0.34% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 499967 lots, with a holding volume of 674811 lots and a daily increase of 10634 lots.

In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly recently. At present, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level is stable. With the continuous decline in quotes from Beigang, market pessimism is spreading, and there is a lack of motivation to transport goods from production areas. At present, the overall market supply exceeds demand, the willingness of terminal procurement is low, and the support for coal prices is insufficient. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: there may be an increase in demand for acetic acid methanol; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: The expected shutdown of a dimethyl ether unit has reduced the demand for methanol; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, influenced by favorable factors on the methanol demand side.

On the supply side, the overall equipment recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of December 12th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 346.00-347.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 124.00-125.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 433.00-434.00 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, factory supply may decrease, and under low inventory, enterprises will mainly sell at high prices; In terms of ports, due to changes in equipment in the main regions of the Middle East, the mentality is relatively strong, and inventory may continue to be depleted. Downstream demand is expected to maintain incremental growth. Methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.