According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market experienced a unilateral decline in December. From December 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 5450 yuan/ton to 5162 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.28% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 23.32%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market experienced a weak decline, with some areas affected by the previous snowfall, resulting in logistics disruptions and pressure on shipments. In addition, there was ample supply of spot goods, leading to significant pressure on enterprises to reduce inventory. At the same time, demand side support was poor, with rigid demand procurement being the main factor, resulting in a decrease in ethanol prices. In mid month, the domestic ethanol market remained sluggish and lacked positive news support, leading to continued weak downstream demand. Holders of goods are experiencing slow shipments, resulting in overall high pressure on shipments. Manufacturers are under pressure to sell at a discount, causing ethanol prices to fluctuate and fall. At the end of the month, the price of ethanol in the domestic market fell significantly, and the supply was relatively high. Downstream gas purchases were mediocre, and prices from manufacturers kept falling.

On the cost side, the market price of raw material corn is weak and falling, and the inventory of southern ports is rising. There is a lot of storage pressure, and the ports are still receiving goods one after another. Traders have a high enthusiasm for shipping, maintaining high quotes and low prices, and there is a lot of bargaining space. Recently, downstream procurement enthusiasm has been low, port transactions have been limited, and the rise in futures prices has been weak. Traders have generally lowered their quotes by 10-20 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable, and the operating load is gradually increasing. In some areas, there may be an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate is rumored to be operating at a high level. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

The future market forecast shows that the spot supply is abundant, the terminal Baijiu consumption has little change, and the demand side support is limited. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly be weak.