According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will first rise and then fall in April 2025, with an overall downward trend. From April 1st to 27th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 6120 yuan/ton to 5490 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 10.29% during the period.

In the first ten days of the month, the toluene market saw a slight increase due to pre holiday restocking. During the period, the pre holiday purchasing intentions of the disproportionation and oil blending industries in Shandong were relatively strong, and the sales situation in the region was good. The overall inventory of refineries was low, and their quotations were relatively firm. Overall, the toluene market saw a slight increase due to the impact of pre holiday purchasing intentions.
Mid month: Mid month: Crude oil prices fell sharply, sales in Shandong were good, and factory inventories were generally low, so the downward adjustment this week was relatively small. Due to the drag of crude oil, prices in the East China region have fallen sharply, and the market sentiment is weak. Overall, due to the overall decline in crude oil and aromatic hydrocarbon markets, the toluene market has generally declined.
Late month: Weak demand and downward trend in the toluene market. Refinery quotations in Shandong region have been continuously lowered this week, and downstream purchases have been made on dips. The supply in the East China market is slightly loose, the overall performance of the aromatic hydrocarbon market is weak, the toluene market is dragged down by weak prices, the price reduction of Sinopec in the South China region is dragging down the mentality of the spot market, and the market is slightly under pressure due to high port inventory.
Cost wise: The international crude oil market experienced a broad decline in the first half of April, with fluctuations in the mid to late period. At the beginning of April, the international oil price market experienced a significant decline. On the one hand, the US tariff trade war and tariff trade barriers had a huge impact on the global economy, increasing uncertainty in the future. The market believes that the risk of the United States falling into an economic recession has increased, and this will have a huge negative impact on global economic growth. On the other hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced future production increases, which also had a negative impact on crude oil and led to a significant decrease in international oil prices. As the international situation gradually stabilized, crude oil entered a range of volatile trends. As of April 25th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $63.02 per barrel, an increase of $0.23 or 0.4%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $66.87 per barrel, an increase of $0.32 or 0.5%.
Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of April 27th, East China Company quoted 5400 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5450 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5650-5700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5550 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 27, 2025, the price of xylene sold by Sinopec Sales Company has temporarily stabilized, with a current price of 6800 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, and other facilities are operating stably with normal sales, with a price reduction of 800 yuan/ton compared to March 31. As of April 24th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 719-721 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 744-746 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 103 US dollars/ton from March 28th.
Market forecast: The recent fluctuations in the crude oil market are relatively small, and the direction of the trend is not clear, which has little impact on the toluene market. The main factors affecting the market in the near future are supply and demand. The expected new production capacity on the supply side has been released recently, and the market generally expects loose supply in the future. Coupled with the recent influx of more port cargo, the supply side is relatively loose. The demand side is approaching the May Day holiday and the downstream is actively replenishing inventory. In a short period of time, demand has partially rebounded, and the support from the demand side is relatively weak. Overall, under the atmosphere of loose supply, it is expected that the performance of the toluene market will continue to be weak.